L3/L4 Autonomous Driving and Startups Research Report, 2025
상품코드:1652116
리서치사:ResearchInChina
발행일:2025년 02월
페이지 정보:영문 495 Pages
라이선스 & 가격 (부가세 별도)
한글목차
로보택시는 2026-2030년 규모 확대로 L3 개인용 자동차가 새로운 상업화 기회를 열 것
2023-2024년에 로보택시 시장의 통합이 가속된 후, 주요 로보택시 기업은 무인 실증운전에서 상업운전으로 서서히 이행하고 있습니다. 많은 기업들은 2026년을 로보택시의 대규모 개발의 원년으로 자리매김하고 대규모의 전개를 계획하고 있습니다. 베이징과 우한이 2025년에 L3 자율주행 자가용차의 발매를 정식으로 발표해 중국 인텔리전트 드라이빙 산업의 최초의 벤치마크를 설정하여, 대기업 자동차 제조업체는 레이아웃을 가속하고 있어, 2025-2027년을 L3 자율주행 운전차의 양산을 향한 중요한 단계로 하고 있습니다. 그 중 Li Auto는 2025년까지 감리된 L3 지능형 운전을 실현할 계획입니다.
L3-L4 자율주행 응용 시나리오 1: 로보택시 시장
로보택시의 동향 1: 2023-2024년은 로보택시 산업발전의 조정기이다.
Google이 2009년에 자율주행차 프로젝트를 시작한 이래로 자율주행 기술은 점차 세계의 주목을 끌게 되어 세계의 주목과 투자를 촉발시키고 있습니다. 캘리포니아 DMV의 최신 데이터에 따르면 2024년 캘리포니아에서 자율주행차의 시험 주행 거리는 450만 마일로 2023년부터 50% 감소했습니다. 인간의 안전 드라이버에 의한 테스트 허가는 크게 감소하고 31개 기업만이 허가를 가지고 있지만, 2024년에 실제로 공도 테스트를 실시한 것은 11개 기업만으로, 9개 기업은 테스트를 중지하고 프로그램에서 철수하고 있습니다. 무인 테스트의 경우 AutoX, WeRide, Waymo, Zoox, Nuro의 6개 기업만이 허가를 받았습니다. 이 변화는 10년 이상에 걸친 기술 개발, 비즈니스 모델 모색, 시장 시행착오를 거쳐 로보택시 산업이 2023-2024년에 중요한 조정기에 들어간 것을 반영하고 있습니다. 이 단계는 기술과 시장의 성숙도가 시험될 뿐만 아니라 산업 내 적자 생존의 분수령이기도 합니다.
2023년부터 2024년까지 일부 L4 자율주행 기업은 재무적 압력으로 인해 철수 또는 전략적 조정을 강요했습니다. 이러한 기업들은 기술적 혁신에 주력하면서도 비즈니스 모델이 불분명하거나 시장 확대가 잘못되었기 때문에 자립을 이루지 못했던 시장에 대한 초기 진출기업이 대부분이었습니다. 2024년에 Cruise가 해산을 발표했고, 2024년 2월에는 Tier 1 거대 기업 Aptiv이 자율주행 기업 Motional에 대한 투자 비율을 낮추어 레이아웃을 최적화하고 자체 핵심 강점에 집중했습니다.
산업 조정 기간 동안 로보택시 부문은 복잡한 양상을 보였습니다. 자본시장은 보다 신중해지고, L4 기술에서 명확한 이점을 가지고 있으며, 초기 비즈니스 모델의 루프를 형성한 자율주행 기업에 점차 자금이 집중되었습니다.
2024년 7월, Waymo는 50억 달러의 전략적 투자를 받았으며 로보택시 분야에서 주도적 지위를 더욱 강화했습니다. 한편, WeRide와 Pony.ai는 NASDAQ 상장에 성공하여 산업의 중진이 되고 있습니다. 이러한 상장은 각 회사에 자금 지원을 가져왔을 뿐만 아니라 산업 전체에 새로운 활력을 주입하고 로보택시 부문이 조정기를 거쳐 서서히 성숙한 개발 단계로 이행하고 있음을 보여줍니다.
로보택시 동향 2: 기술 주도 자율주행 기업이 추진속도, 운행범위, 차량 전개규모 등 로보택시 사업을 선도하고 있다.
로보택시 부문에는 주로 세 가지 유형의 기업이 있습니다.
1: SAIC와 GAC와 같은 전통적인 자동차 제조 업체와 Tesla와 XPeng 같은 새로운 자동차 제조 업체.
2: Ruqi와 Caocao와 같은 이동성 플랫폼.
3: Waymo, Zoox, Baidu Apollo, Pony.ai, WeRide, AutoX 등 L4 자율주행 솔루션 제공업체 및 로보택시 사업자.
로보택시의 상업화에서는 Waymo, Baidu Apollo, Pony.ai, WeRide 등 기술 주도형의 자동 운전기업(제3유형의 기업)이, 기존 자동차 제조업체(제1유형)나 모빌리티 플랫폼(제2유형)과 비교해, 상업화 스피드, 운용 범위, 차량 전개 규모와 같은 부분에서 주요 기업보다 앞서나가고 있습니다.
이 보고서는 중국 자동차 산업에 대한 조사 분석을 통해 L3/L4 자율주행 정책 및 규제, 응용 시나리오, 주요 기술 및 각 회사의 솔루션에 대한 정보를 제공합니다.
목차
제1장 L3/L4 자율주행 정책, 규제, 표준
자율주행 분류 및 표준화
중국의 자율주행 정책과 규제
세계의 자율주행 정책과 규제
제2장 L3/L4 자율주행의 응용 시나리오
L3/L4 자율주행 비즈니스 모델 분석
L4 응용 시나리오 - 로보택시
L3/L4개인용 승용차 시장
L4 응용 시나리오 - 무인 셔틀
L4 응용 시나리오 - 무인 배송
L4 응용 시나리오 - 자동 운전 트랙
제3장 레벨 4 자율주행의 양산을 위한 주요 기술
L4 자율주행의 주요 기술: 알고리즘
L4 자율주행의 주요 기술: 데이터 루프
L4 자율주행의 주요 기술: 중복성
L4 자율주행의 주요기술: 차량·도로·클라우드 제휴
L4 자율주행의 주요기술:HD맵, 측위
제4장 OEM L3/L4 자율주행 솔루션
XPeng
Li Auto
Chery
GAC
Great Wall Motor
Tesla
Toyota
Volvo
Mercedes-Benz
BMW
Volkswagen
SAIC
Geely
Changan
기타 OEM
제5장 Tier 1과 스타트업 L4 자율주행 솔루션
Waymo
Aurora
Baidu Apollo
Pony.ai
WeRide
AutoX
Momenta
DeepRoute.ai
Chenqi Technology
Huawei
Haomo.ai
UISEE Technology
IDRIVERPLUS
QCraft
PlusAI
Inceptio Technology
CiDi
Deepway
JHS
영문 목차
영문목차
Robotaxi steps towards scaling during 2026-2030, L3 Personal Vehicles Open New Commercial Opportunities
ResearchInChina categorizes L3-L4 autonomous driving into seven application scenarios based on the operational environment from "closed -> semi-closed -> open" and the driving speed of autonomous vehicles: Robotaxi, L3-L4 personal vehicles, unmanned delivery, unmanned shuttles, port autonomous driving, mining autonomous driving, and long-haul logistics autonomous driving. This report will focus on the Robotaxi and L3-L4 personal vehicle scenarios.
After the accelerated consolidation of Robotaxi market in 2023-2024, leading Robotaxi players are gradually transitioning from unmanned demonstration operations to commercial operations. Many companies view 2026 as the first year of large-scale development for Robotaxi, with plans for mass deployment. With Beijing and Wuhan officially announcing the launch of L3 autonomous private cars in 2025, setting the first benchmark for the domestic intelligent driving industry, major automakers are accelerating their layouts, targeting 2025-2027 as the critical phase for mass production of L3 autonomous vehicles. Among them, Li Auto plans to achieve supervised L3 intelligent driving by 2025.
Robotaxi Trend 1: The year of 2023-2024 is the Adjustment Period for Robotaxi Industry Development
Since Google launched its autonomous vehicle project in 2009, autonomous driving technology has gradually entered the public eye, sparking widespread global attention and investment. According to the latest data from the California DMV, the total test mileage of autonomous vehicles in California in 2024 was 4.5 million miles, a 50% decrease from 2023. The number of test permits with human safety drivers has significantly decreased, with only 31 companies holding such permits, but only 11 actually conducted public road tests in 2024, and 9 have stopped testing and exited the program. In terms of unmanned testing, only 6 companies have obtained permits, including AutoX, WeRide, Waymo, Zoox, and Nuro. This change reflects that after more than a decade of technological development, business model exploration, and market trial and error, the Robotaxi industry has entered a critical adjustment period in 2023-2024. This phase is not only a test of technological and market maturity but also a watershed for the survival of the fittest within the industry.
In 2023-2024, some L4 autonomous driving companies were forced to exit or make strategic adjustments due to financial pressures. These companies were mostly early entrants in the market, focusing on technological breakthroughs but failing to achieve self-sufficiency due to unclear business models or poor market expansion. In 2024, Cruise announced its dissolution, and in February 2024, Tier 1 giant Aptiv optimized its layout by reducing its stake in the autonomous driving company Motional, focusing on its core strengths.
During the industry adjustment period, Robotaxi sector presented a mixed picture. Capital markets became more cautious, with funds gradually concentrating on autonomous driving companies that have clear advantages in L4 technology and have formed initial business model loops.
In July 2024, Waymo secured a $5 billion strategic investment, further solidifying its leading position in the Robotaxi field. Meanwhile, WeRide and Pony.ai successfully listed on NASDAQ, becoming heavyweight players in the industry. These listings not only brought more financial support to the companies themselves but also injected new vitality into the entire industry, signaling that the Robotaxi sector is gradually moving towards a mature development stage after the adjustment period.
Robotaxi Trend 2: Tech-Driven Autonomous Driving Companies Lead in Robotaxi Operations including promotion speed, operation coverage and vehicle deployment scale
There are three main types of players in the Robotaxi sector:
1) Traditional automakers like SAIC and GAC, and new carmakers like Tesla and XPeng. Automakers are entering the Robotaxi space to seize the future opportunity of unmanned mobility.
2) Mobility platforms like Ruqi and Caocao. These platforms enter the Robotaxi market through two approaches: one focuses on platform construction and operations, collaborating with automakers and autonomous driving algorithm providers to jointly advance autonomous driving services. They use a "mixed operations" model for dispatching, creating an open mobility platform. The other is a "full-stack" development model, where the platform independently develops autonomous vehicles, platform technology, and algorithm systems, handling all aspects of operations. This approach gives the platform full control over R&D, deployment, and maintenance, allowing for better resource integration, system optimization, and rapid iteration.
3) L4 autonomous driving solution providers and Robotaxi operators like Waymo, Zoox, Baidu Apollo, Pony.ai, WeRide, and AutoX. Facing commercialization challenges, these companies face technical, cost, and policy constraints in scaling up, resulting in insufficient data and limited cost reductions, so adopting strategies like "downgrading to L2++" for mass production and "scenario progression" to accumulate commercialization experience, alleviate financial pressure, and reuse more road data.
In the commercialization of Robotaxi, tech-driven autonomous driving companies (the third type of player) like Waymo, Baidu Apollo, Pony.ai, and WeRide are leading in terms of commercialization speed, operational coverage, and vehicle deployment scale compared to traditional automakers (the first type) and mobility platforms (the second type).
Japanese automakers are taking a different approach by partnering with strong L4 autonomous driving system providers to accelerate their Robotaxi layout, especially in the promising Chinese market. For example, Nissan has partnered with L4 autonomous driving system provider WeRide in China, focusing on Suzhou High-Speed Rail New City Intelligent Connected Vehicle Demonstration Zone. This project has successfully entered the commercialization pilot phase, starting charging services in December 2024.
In contrast, German automakers are currently focusing on R&D and market promotion of L3/L4 personal passenger car autonomous driving systems, showing less enthusiasm for Robotaxi. Markus Verge, CTO of Mercedes-Benz, stated that the company's core focus is not on entering the Robotaxi field but on L3/L4 autonomous driving system R&D and promotion.
Among Chinese domestic brands, SAIC, Changan, and Chery have entered the Robotaxi demonstration operation phase, with deployment scales not exceeding 100 vehicles. SAIC launched its Robotaxi business in 2021 and was approved for unmanned demonstration applications in 2024. Currently in the demonstration application phase, it does not charge users, with nearly 100 Robotaxi vehicles deployed.
Robotaxi Trend 3: in 2026-2030, Robotaxi will enter the large-scale commercial development phase, with 2026 as the first year of scaling
Zhang Ning, Vice President of Pony.ai, estimates that deploying thousands of Robotaxi vehicles is necessary to achieve operational breakeven. Pony.ai plans to deploy a thousand Robotaxi vehicles in 2025 and double that number in 2026. Additionally, Pony.ai is accelerating the global landing of its L4 business through strategic partnerships with automakers, mobility platforms, and autonomous driving technology companies, having already entered markets in South Korea, Luxembourg, and Singapore. WeRide plans to achieve large-scale Robotaxi commercialization by 2026, aiming to significantly reduce per-kilometer mobility costs through scale operations, making them lower than traditional taxis.
Tesla will launch Cybercab in 2026, priced under $30,000, equipped with an "end-to-end" large model algorithm, and committed to a mapless solution, with operations expected to start in the second half of 2026. XPeng Motors announced it will launch a new generation of competitive Robotaxi in 2026.
In addition to new carmakers, traditional domestic brands like Geely are focusing on building an open operational platform in the domestic market, integrating Robotaxi from various brands through its Caocao Mobility platform, and plans to launch a customized Geely-branded Robotaxi model in 2026. In the international market, its Zeekr brand has partnered with Waymo, planning to deploy related products in the U.S. market by 2025. GAC plans to deploy a thousand Robotaxi vehicles with Pony.ai by 2025, while its joint venture with Didi, Andi Technology, is also planning to start production in 2025.
Robotaxi Trend 4: China and the U.S. Lead in Robotaxi, with Leading Companies Moving Towards Fully Unmanned Robotaxi Demonstration Applications
For Robotaxi companies, removing safety drivers is a key step towards profitability. The salaries, benefits, and training costs of safety drivers are significant components of Robotaxi operational costs. In first-tier cities, an experienced safety driver's annual salary can range from 100,000 to 200,000 yuan. For a Robotaxi fleet with hundreds or even thousands of vehicles, the annual human cost can reach tens or even hundreds of millions of yuan. Removing safety drivers can significantly reduce these costs, improving the company's profitability. Additionally, removing safety drivers can increase the actual operational time and utilization rate of vehicles. To accelerate Robotaxi development, cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Chongqing have successively released policies for unmanned commercial pilot programs.
L4 Autonomous Driving Application Scenario 2: L3-L4 Personal Passenger Car Market
Trend 1: The First Year of L3 Autonomous Driving Commercialization Begins, with Multiple Local Governments Introducing Supportive Policies to Boost Industry Development
In December 2024, Beijing released "Beijing Autonomous Vehicle Regulations," clarifying expansion of autonomous driving applications to "personal vehicles" and set to take effect on April 1, 2025. This regulation provides a clear legal basis for the application of L3 autonomous driving technology in personal vehicles, eliminating legal and regulatory uncertainties, offering a stable policy environment for automakers and related companies. In the same month, Wuhan released the "Wuhan Autonomous Vehicle Regulations," supporting the demonstration and commercial pilot applications of intelligent connected vehicles in smart passenger cars, meaning consumers will have more opportunities to experience the convenience of L3 and above autonomous driving technologies.
L3 Autonomous Driving Technology Enters a New Phase, with Legal Support as a Key Driving Force
Trend 2: 2025 Marks the First Year of L3 Autonomous Driving Commercialization, with Automakers Preparing for L3 Autonomous Driving, Targeting 2025-2027 as the Key Phase for Mass Production
L3 Autonomous Driving Technology is About to Enter a Market Explosion, with Major Automakers Layout to Seize Market Opportunities
XPeng has set 2025 as the key milestone for mass production of L3 autonomous driving in personal vehicles. Li Auto also aims to achieve L3 autonomous driving mass production by 2025. Tesla, as a global leader in autonomous driving technology, plans to accelerate the landing of its FSD unsupervised version in 2025, potentially triggering new changes in the L3 market.
SAIC's IM Motors and GAC both view 2025 as a critical year for L3 autonomous driving mass production. GAC further plans to achieve L3+ autonomous driving mass production by 2026 and move towards L4 by 2027. Geely, through its Zeekr brand, obtained L3 pilot qualifications in Shanghai and Hangzhou in 2023, achieving L3 in large-scale urban scenarios. Nissan plans to launch ProPILOT 3.0 with L3 functionality by 2027 and ProPILOT 4.0 with L4 functionality by 2030. BMW obtained L3 test licenses for Shanghai's elevated roads in 2023 and has already delivered L3-capable vehicles in Germany, laying a solid foundation for its subsequent mass production plans.
Table of Contents
1 L3/L4 Autonomous Driving Policies, Regulations, and Standards
1.1 Autonomous Driving Classification and Standardization
China's L3/L4 Autonomous Driving Regulations: "Notice from Four Ministries on Conducting Pilot Programs for Intelligent Connected Vehicle Access and Road Travel"
China's L3/L4 Autonomous Driving Regulations: Ministry of Transport Issues "Autonomous Vehicle Transport Safety Service Guidelines (Trial)"
1.3 Global Autonomous Driving Policies and Regulations
Global Autonomous Driving Industry Sees Substantial Policy Promotion
Global L3/L4 Autonomous Driving Regulations: Summary
Global L3/L4 Autonomous Driving Regulations: Japan's "Road Traffic Law" Allows L4 Autonomous Vehicles and Robots on Roads
Global L3/L4 Autonomous Driving Regulations: Japan's Autonomous Driving Environment Construction Measures
Global L3/L4 Autonomous Driving Regulations: Japan's Autonomous Driving Development Goals
Global L3/L4 Autonomous Driving Regulations: Japan's RoAD to the L4 Project
U. S. Plans to Ban Chinese Software in Autonomous Vehicles
2 L3/L4 Autonomous Driving Application Scenarios
2.1 L3/L4 Autonomous Driving Business Model Analysis
Commercial Value of L3/L4 High-Level Autonomous Driving
Social Value of L3/L4 High-Level Autonomous Driving
Seven Major Application Scenarios for L3/L4 High-Level Autonomous Vehicles
L4 Autonomous Driving Commercialization in Limited Scenarios and Related Companies
Application Timeline and Market Size of L4 Autonomous Driving Major Scenarios Commercial Scale
L2-L5 Autonomous Driving Penetration Rate in China and Global Markets, 2025-2035E
China Robotaxi Market Size,2025-2035E
L4 Commercialization Landing Model 1: L4 Multi-Scenario Layout
L4 Commercialization Landing Model 2: L4 and L2++ Dual-Track Development
L4 Commercialization Landing Model 3: Technology Downgrading from L4 to L2++, Startups Accelerating L2++ Mass Production Landing
2.2 L4 Application Scenario - Robotaxi
Robotaxi Trend 1
Robotaxi Trend 2
Robotaxi Trend 3
Three Types of Players in the Robotaxi Industry
Robotaxi 2024: Summary of Global Automakers' "Unmanned Driving" Layout Progress
Three Operational Models Adopted by Global Automakers in Robotaxi Layout
Global Major Automakers' Robotaxi Layout in 2024: Layout Methods, Operational Models, Development Stages, and Vehicle Configurations Comparison (1)
Global Major Automakers' Robotaxi Layout in 2024: Layout Methods, Operational Models, Development Stages, and Vehicle Configurations Comparison (2)
Foreign Leading Robotaxi Operators' Layout in 2024: Layout Methods, Operational Models, Development Stages, and Vehicle Configurations Comparison
Domestic Leading Robotaxi Operators' Layout in 2024: Layout Methods, Operational Models, Development Stages, and Vehicle Configurations Comparison
Current Development Stage Analysis of China's Robotaxi Market
Licenses and Qualifications Required for China's Robotaxi Market to Transition from Technical Routine Testing to Commercial Model Verification
Domestic Policy Pilot Zones Land In-Vehicle Unmanned Commercial Pilot Policies
Main "Iron Triangle" Model Adopted by China's Robotaxi Market Players
Summary of "Iron Triangle" Model Players in the Robotaxi Market (1)
Summary of "Iron Triangle" Model Players in the Robotaxi Market (2)
China Robotaxi Ownership, 2024-2027E
Single Vehicle Profit Model: Achieving Single Vehicle Profit Breakeven by 2027
Expert Opinions on Robotaxi Scaled Landing
2.3 L3/L4 Personal Passenger Car Market
The First Year of L3 Autonomous Driving Commercialization Begins, with Three Local Governments Introducing Supportive Policies to Boost Industry Development
Multiple Automakers Preparing for L3 Autonomous Driving, Targeting 2025-2027 as the Key Phase for Mass Production
Domestic Automakers with L3 Autonomous Driving Road Test Licenses
End-to-End Large Model Mass Production Landing: L3-L4 Autonomous Driving Will Accelerate
Starting from 2024, Multiple Automakers Accelerate AI Layput, Officially Entering a New Era of AI Deep Empowerment in Automotive Industry
Comparison of L3/L4 Autonomous Driving Product Planning of New Car Makers
Comparison of L3/L4 Autonomous Driving Product Planning of Domestic Leading Automakers
Comparison of L3/L4 Autonomous Driving Product Planning of German and Japanese Leading Automakers
2.4 L4 Application Scenario - Unmanned Shuttles
The Commercial Value of Unmanned Shuttles and Five Typical Application Scenarios
2024 Sees 20 Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration Pilot Cities, Accelerating Unmanned Shuttle Demonstration Applications
Targeted Policy Regulations Release Further Accelerate Unmanned Shuttle Landing
Key Players in Domestic Low-Speed Unmanned Shuttle Scenarios 1: L4 Autonomous Driving System Providers (1)
Key Players in Domestic Low-Speed Unmanned Shuttle Scenarios 1: L4 Autonomous Driving System Providers (2)
Key Players in Domestic Low-Speed Unmanned Shuttle Scenarios 2: OEMs