This report focuses on 5G developments in China, including macroeconomics, geopolitics, and technology. The publication date is scheduled after the 4 service providers (China Broadcasting Network, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom) provide their annual reports, so that we can gather many details about 2023 and provide a 2024 outlook and a 5-year forecast. This report also includes RAN vendor market shares and analysis.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT
KEY TAKEAWAYS
LEVERAGING ITS ECONOMIC AND 5G SUPERPOWER STATUS, CHINA IS PAVING THE ROAD TO 6G, ITS NEW NATIONAL FOCUS
CHINA'S EMPHASIS ON TAKING AN EARLY LEAD IN 6G HAS BEEN PLAIN TO SEE FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS NOW
All that puts Huawei in the 6G patent driver's seat
FROM DAY 1, THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT SAW 5G AS A KEY ENABLER OF CHINA'S DIGITAL ECONOMY
In 2023, the 3 Chinese service providers registered growing traction in the lucrative industrial sector
FROM ECONOMIC POWER TO 5G SUPERPOWER
By far, China boasts the world's largest BTS footprint...
Once again, the 3 service providers beat the government's 5G BTS target, and China passed its 2025 target
State mandate kept capex elevated in 2023, which marked the 5G peak in China
...AND THE WORLD'S LARGEST TOTAL MOBILE AND 5G SUBSCRIBER BASE
2024 WILL SEE A LOWER LEVEL OF 5G UNIT ACTIVITY THAN LAST YEAR, MARKING THE START OF A DECLINING TREND THROUGH 2028
Capex are expected to decline 5% over last year
As a result, the whole RAN market will decline 37% this year
In 2024, China will issue millimeter wave licenses to conduct testing...
...and actual deployments will follow in 2025 but due to a lack of information, we have not been able to build a forecast model
As early as in 2026, China may kick off 6G rollouts
Although we do not know what exactly 6G will be, Huawei is already promoting 5.5G but the 3 Chinese service providers ignore it, for now
TOGETHER, HUAWEI AND ZTE COMMAND 84% OF THE DOMESTIC MARKET
Huawei and ZTE have been dominating the market at the expense of Ericsson and Nokia
There is no end in sight, in June 2023, China Mobile awarded the bulk of its 5G contract to Huawei