Stratistics MRC에 따르면 세계 탄소 상쇄 시장은 2025년 6,250억 달러를 차지할 전망이며, 예측 기간 동안 CAGR은 22.8%로 성장하여 2032년에는 2조 6,340억 달러에 이를 것으로 예상됩니다.
온실가스 배출량의 측정 가능한 감소는 다른 장소에서 발생한 배출량을 보완하기 위해 이용되며, 이는 탄소 상쇄로도 알려져 있습니다. 탄소발자국의 균형을 맞추고 국제 환경 이니셔티브를 추진하기 위해 기업과 개인은 탄소 상쇄권을 구입합니다.
AlliedOffsets에 따르면 2025년 3월 기준으로 전 세계적으로 33,882건의 탄소 상쇄 프로젝트가 진행되고 있습니다.
기후 변화에 대한 의식 증가
정부, 기업 및 개인은 환경에 미치는 영향을 줄이기 위해 탄소 중립 목표를 채택하기 위해 노력하고 있습니다. 연구 보고서의 증가는 산업에 배출량을 줄이고 상쇄 프로젝트에 대한 투자를 촉진하고 있습니다.
탄소 상쇄 프로젝트의 높은 비용
삼림 재생, 재생 가능 에너지 설비, 메탄 회수 등의 프로젝트에는 많은 자본, 첨단 기술, 장기적인 유지보수가 필요합니다. 경제적 장벽은 비용에 민감한 산업의 진입을 막아 시장의 확장성을 제한하고 있습니다.
블록체인과 AI와의 통합
블록체인은 탄소 크레딧 거래의 변조를 방지하고 추적을 가능하게 함으로써 투명성을 높이고 부정 리스크를 낮춥니다. 기업들은 이를 달성하기 위한 기술 주도 솔루션을 찾고 있습니다. 또한 분산 플랫폼은 탄소 시장에 대한 접근을 민주화하여 소규모 기업의 진입을 촉진할 수 있습니다.
표준화와 투명성 부족
탄소 저류량을 측정하는 방법이 각기 다르며 가격 결정 메커니즘도 일관되지 않기 때문에 시장이 분단되고 있습니다. Verra 및 Gold Standard와 같은 조직은 이러한 격차를 해결하기 위해 노력하고 있지만, 지역 간 규제 격차는 여전히 남아 있습니다.
COVID-19의 대유행은 경기 감속에 의해 산업 배출량이 감소하고 기업의 예산이 위기 관리에 집중되었기 때문에 탄소 상쇄 시장을 일시적으로 혼란시켰습니다. 또 기업은 탄소 중립을 경기 자극책에 포함시켰습니다. 또한, 원격 업무가 상쇄 검증이나 거래의 디지털 솔루션에 박차를 가했습니다.
예측 기간 중 임업 및 토지 이용 부문이 최대가 될 전망
임업 및 토지 이용 부문은 탄소 격리 능력이 실증되고 있어 생물다양성 보전 등의 이점도 있기 때문에 예측 기간 중에 최대 시장 점유율을 차지할 것으로 예상됩니다. REDD+(삼림 감소 및 열화에 의한 배출 삭감)와 같은 이니셔티브가 개발도상국에서 지지를 모으고 있습니다.
기술 및 IT 부문은 예측 기간 중 가장 높은 CAGR이 예상됩니다.
예측 기간 동안 기술 및 IT 부문은 탄소 회계, 모니터링 및 거래 플랫폼의 기술 혁신에 견인되며, 가장 높은 성장률을 보일 것으로 예측됩니다. 프로젝트 선택을 최적화하고 블록체인은 거래 무결성을 보장합니다. 탄소 관리를 위한 SaaS 솔루션을 제공하는 신흥 기업이 벤처 캐피탈의 유입에 힘입어 급증하고 있습니다.
예측 기간 동안 유럽은 EU배출권거래제도(ETS)나 그린딜 등 엄격한 규제 틀에 힘입어 최대 시장 점유율을 차지할 것으로 예상됩니다. 게다가 에너지, 항공, 제조 등의 산업에서의 적극적인 참여가 지역의 우위성을 강화하고 있습니다.
예측 기간 동안 아시아태평양은 급속한 산업화와 기후 변화에 대한 노력 증가로 가장 높은 CAGR을 나타낼 것으로 예측됩니다. 중국과 인도와 같은 국가들은 경제 성장과 배출 감소의 균형을 맞추기 위해 신재생에너지와 삼림 프로젝트에 투자하고 있습니다. 또한 기업의 ESG 채용 증가와 국제 기후 변화 대출 프로그램이 시장 확대를 가속화하고 있습니다. 이 지역의 인구의 증가는 도시화와 하이테크 주도의 혁신과 함께 이 지역에서 탄소 상쇄 솔루션의 비옥한 기반을 만들어 냅니다.
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Carbon Offsets Market is accounted for $625 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $2634 billion by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 22.8% during the forecast period. Measurable decreases in greenhouse gas emissions that are utilized to make up for emissions generated elsewhere are known as carbon offsets. They are accomplished by initiatives that eliminate or stop emissions, such as methane capture, renewable energy, and reforestation. To balance their carbon footprints and promote international environmental initiatives, businesses and individuals purchase carbon offsets. Credibility is ensured by verified initiatives, which also promote cleaner energy and environmental conservation, mitigating climate change.
According to AlliedOffsets as of March 2025 there were 33,882 carbon offset projects globally.
Rising awareness of climate change
Governments, corporations, and individuals are increasingly adopting carbon neutrality goals to mitigate environmental impacts. Initiatives like the Paris Agreement and corporate ESG commitments have amplified demand for carbon credits. Additionally, heightened media coverage and scientific reports on global warming have pressured industries to reduce emissions, fostering investments in offset projects. This collective shift toward sustainability underscores carbon offsets as a critical tool for balancing unavoidable emissions, thereby accelerating market growth.
High cost of carbon offset projects
Projects such as reforestation, renewable energy installations, or methane capture require substantial capital, advanced technologies, and long-term maintenance. Moreover, costs associated with third-party verification and certification further strain budgets, particularly for smaller enterprises. These financial barriers deter participation from cost-sensitive industries, limiting market scalability. While large corporations can absorb these expenses, SMEs often struggle; creating an uneven competitive landscape and slowing broader adoption of carbon offset initiatives.
Integration with blockchain & AI
Blockchain enhances transparency by enabling immutable tracking of carbon credit transactions, reducing fraud risks. AI optimizes project selection and impact assessment through predictive analytics, improving efficiency. Startups leveraging these technologies are attracting investor interest, while corporations seek tech-driven solutions to meet sustainability targets. Additionally, decentralized platforms could democratize access to carbon markets, fostering participation from smaller entities. This synergy of innovation and sustainability is poised to redefine market dynamics, driving growth and credibility.
Lack of standardization & transparency
Varying methodologies for measuring carbon sequestration and inconsistent pricing mechanisms create market fragmentation. Moreover, concerns over "greenwashing" and the legitimacy of offset projects erode stakeholder trust. While organizations like Verra and Gold Standard aim to address these gaps, regulatory disparities across regions persist. Without harmonized guidelines, the market risks inefficiencies and reduced credibility deterring potential participants.
The Covid-19 pandemic temporarily disrupted the carbon offsets market as economic slowdowns reduced industrial emissions and diverted corporate budgets toward crisis management. Project delays, particularly in forestry and renewable energy, stalled credit issuance. However, post-covid recovery strategies emphasized green investments, with governments and businesses integrating carbon neutrality into stimulus plans. Remote work also spurred digital solutions for offset verification and trading. While initial demand dipped, the crisis reinforced the urgency of climate action, positioning the market for accelerated growth as economies rebounded with a stronger sustainability focus.
The forestry & land use segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The forestry & land use segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period due to its proven carbon sequestration capabilities and co-benefits like biodiversity conservation. Afforestation, reforestation, and avoided deforestation projects align with global climate goals, attracting public and private investments. Additionally, initiatives such as REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) have gained traction in developing nations. The tangible ecological and social impacts of these projects enhance their appeal, ensuring sustained demand.
The technology & IT segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the technology & IT segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate driven by innovations in carbon accounting, monitoring, and trading platforms. Digital tools enable real-time emission tracking and automated credit purchasing, streamlining corporate compliance. Moreover, AI-driven platforms optimize offset project selection, while blockchain ensures transactional integrity. Startups offering SaaS solutions for carbon management are proliferating, supported by venture capital inflows. As industries prioritize data-driven sustainability strategies, this segment's agility and scalability position it for rapid growth.
During the forecast period, the Europe region is expected to hold the largest market share fueled by stringent regulatory frameworks like the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the Green Deal. High carbon pricing, corporate sustainability mandates, and government-led climate initiatives drive demand for offsets. Additionally, robust participation from industries such as energy, aviation, and manufacturing reinforces regional dominance. Collaborative efforts among member states to achieve net-zero targets further bolster market growth, positioning Europe as a global leader in carbon offset adoption.
Over the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR driven by rapid industrialization and increasing climate commitments. Countries like China and India are investing in renewable energy and afforestation projects to balance economic growth with emission reductions. Moreover, rising corporate ESG adoption and international climate financing programs accelerate market expansion. The region's large population, coupled with urbanization and tech-driven innovations, creates a fertile ground for carbon offset solutions in the region.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Carbon Offsets Market include South Pole Group, 3Degrees Group, Inc., EcoAct, Verra, Gold Standard, Climate Impact Partners, NativeEnergy, Carbon Credit Capital, TerraPass, Cool Effect, ClimateCare, Natural Capital Partners, Pachama, Carbonfund.org Foundation and Shell.
In March 2025, South Pole is proud to support a major milestone in Ghana's transition to sustainable transport with the signing of an Article 6 Mitigation Action Purchase Agreement (MOPA) between the Swedish Energy Agency (SEA) & Solar Taxi Ltd, a leading electric vehicle company in Ghana. This marks South Pole's second major ITMO deal in the transport sector and its first with the Swedish Energy Agency, advancing international carbon finance under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement, which enables countries to collaborate on emission reduction targets.
In August 2024, 3Degrees, a leading global climate solutions provider and certified B Corporation, announced the launch of its Supply Chain Emission Reduction Agreement product. This innovative approach empowers suppliers to deliver products with reduced emissions intensity, helping organizations hit their scope 3 goals. This solution is initially available for organizations in the food and apparel industry with North American agricultural supply chains.