Thermal management system research: the mass production of CO2 heat pumps, integrated controllers and other innovative products accelerates
Thermal management of new energy vehicles coordinates the control of vehicle heat and ambient heat from the perspective of the system and the entire vehicle, keeping each component working in the optimal temperature range to ensure efficient collaboration of the vehicle, thereby improving economy, power, energy conservation and environmental protection.
Thermal management of new energy vehicles covers motors, battery systems and cockpit air conditioning.
The installation rate of heat pump air conditioners for new energy passenger cars exceeds 20%, and heat pump air conditioners are penetrating into mid- to low-end models
Heat pump air conditioning is the most effective solution for heating battery-electric vehicles. Consumers have been anxious about the range of battery-electric vehicles. In the absence of breakthroughs in battery technology, the efficiency coefficient of a heat pump is 2-3 times higher than that of PTC heating, which can effectively extend the cruising range by more than 20%.
At present, heat pump air conditioners are primarily installed on mid-to-high-end new energy passenger cars (especially battery-electric passenger cars), mainly because: new energy passenger cars develop rapidly and the market scale effect is obvious; the content-per-car value of heat pump air conditioning systems is higher than that of PTC systems by RMB2,000-3,000, and mid-to-high-end models pose higher profit margins, which can effectively make up the difference.
From January to September 2023, a total of 5.912 million new energy passenger cars were sold in China, of which approximately 1.495 million units or 25.3% were equipped with heat pump air conditioners as standard.
In 2023, the average selling price of a new car with standard heat pump air conditioning dropped from RMB200,000~250,000 to RMB150,000~200,000. Mid- to low-end domestic electric models which are promoted for sales goals have been equipped with heat pump air conditioning systems, and the penetration rate of heat pumps is expected to continue to increase. By 2027, the penetration rate of heat pump air conditioning for new energy vehicles in China will be close to 60%.
By analyzing and comparing the thermal management systems of 18 major OEMs, ResearchInChina found that most OEMs develop thermal management system technical solutions of "multi-way valve + heat pump + waste heat recovery".
For example, Tesla's fourth-generation thermal management system consists of Octovalve + heat pump system + liquid cooling + waste heat recovery to achieve integrated vehicle thermal management. The thermal management system of BYD's e-Platform 3.0 includes Nonavalve + heat pump system + refrigerant direct cooling + waste heat recovery. Xpeng X-HP2.0 intelligent thermal management system contains a ten-way valve, a heat pump and automotive integrated thermal management. The automotive integrated thermal management technology of the Neta Haozhi Platform boasts a heat pump air conditioner, 3 sets of electronic water pumps and 2 sets of "4-way" valves. Xiaomi's 10-way valve thermal management system includes a 10-way valve, a heat pump air conditioner and 800V.
The steady growth of the thermal management system market for new energy vehicles directly propels the development of thermal management parts. In recent years, the number of players in the thermal management market for new energy vehicles has increased significantly, which has led to rising product capacity and intensified market competition. Amid the competition, many OEMs have successively released their latest technologies and products.
1. There will be a breakthrough in the development of R744 refrigerant for domestic new energy vehicle heat pumps
Heat pump air conditioning has replaced PTC to become the standard configuration of new energy vehicles. R134a is still the main refrigerant in domestic new energy vehicles.
At present, in the global market, R744 (carbon dioxide) is the best refrigerant. R744 has advantages like environmental protection, safety and good heating performance, but it requires high pressure, high-pressure and high-temperature resistance of compressors, pipelines and valves, pressure sensors which monitor the system pressure, so it poses more R&D and manufacturing costs.
In the future, CO2 heat pump systems using R744 will become the mainstream. Domestic vendors have begun to lay out the CO2 heat pump market:
2. Automaker CO2 heat pump cooperation: automakers actively cooperate with upstream and downstream partners in the industrial chain to jointly make the CO2 heat pump thermal management system industry bigger and stronger and promote the development of automotive CO2 heat pump technology. In April 2023, the Technical Center of Dongfeng signed the CO2 Heat Pump Industry Chain Cooperation Agreement with its 17 partners. The technical center of Dongfeng will start the technical route of "CO2 direct heat pump+integrated design".
3. Domestic parts vendors have laid out CO2 heat pumps. In the field of new energy vehicle parts, the products such as CO2 electronic expansion valves, CO2 stop valves/check valves/regulating valves produced by Sanhua Intelligent Controls were mass-produced and installed in 2022. In 2023, Shanghai Kelai Mechatronics Engineering Co., Ltd. Mass-produced CO2 high-pressure pipeline systems and installed them in vehicles. Welling developed a rotary electric compressor suitable for CO2.
PTC heaters have become the main solution for automotive heat pump air conditioning to cope with ultra-low temperature.
Because there is no engine in new energy vehicles, heaters are essential in the environment below -10℃. PTC heaters boast advantages like low cost, simple structure, fast heat output and little influence from external environment, but the disadvantage lies in relatively high energy consumption. At present, most mainstream models adopt the solution of heat pump +PTC. With the continuous breakthrough of battery technology, there will be an enormous market for PTC heating in the field of new energy vehicles in the future.
At present, mid-to-low-end new energy vehicles mainly use PTC heating, and a certain number of models with heat pump air-conditioning still use PTC as an auxiliary heating method. On average, a new energy passenger car uses two PTC heaters (a air-cooled heater and a water-cooled heater), with the content-per-car value of RMB800-1,500. We estimate that the market size of PTC heaters for new energy vehicles in China will hit about RMB11 billion in 2025.
For example, Tesla has added an additional PTC heater to the heat pump system of Model Y. This PTC heater uses the 12V voltage which is also seen in traditional fuel vehicles, and Model Y is also equipped with a separate 12V battery. The PTC heating system is powered by a single 12V battery, but its power is far less than the PTC heating power of traditional air conditioners. It can not only save electricity, but also effectively alleviate the low-temperature heating effect of heat pump air conditioning.
In addition to Tesla, BYD, NIO and HiPhi all add PTC heaters to their heat pump systems.
In addition to the solution of heat pump air conditioning plus PTC heating, the industry leverages high-voltage and high-power water heating electric heaters to cope with the impact of low temperatures on batteries in winter. Traditional new energy vehicle water heaters use PTC ceramic chip heating technology. Due to its material characteristics and complex production process, this technology usually has an upper limit of operating voltage, namely 750V, which cannot meet the 800V fast charging requirements of new energy vehicles. When applied to 800V high voltage conditions, it will incur obvious insulation problems, which will threaten to the safety of vehicles. At present, only a few domestic vendors can supply 800V PTC water heaters, with limited mass production and delivery.
Integrated development of thermal management controllers and automotive electronic and electrical architectures
By monitoring the equipment temperature in real time, thermal management controllers intelligently adjust the rotating speed and power of the heat dissipation equipment to ensure that the equipment is in the optimal temperature range, stable in operation and longer in service life. In addition, thermal management controllers have high precision and can quickly respond to temperature abnormalities in high-performance electronic equipment such as processors and graphics cards, thereby avoiding damage to equipment and data. With the centralization of automotive electronic and electrical architectures, thermal management controllers and domain controllers will be integrated into central integrated systems.
In the Audi e-tron thermal management system, the thermal management controller adopts CAN bus, while the PTC, EXV, ACCM, PT, four-way valve and stop valve use LIN.
Tesla has integrated the thermal management controller into the body controller to control the valve and electronic water pump.
In addition to air conditioning systems, refrigerant, PTC heaters, electronic water pumps and thermal management controllers, hot pipe system technology includes technology integration, battery thermal management, electric compressors, electronic expansion valves, pipe street lamps and other parts. Driven by the development of electrification and integration, these thermal management components will undergo technological iteration and reform.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction and Policy of New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System
1.1 Introduction of New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System
1.1.1 Definition
1.1.2 Traditional/New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System Structure
1.1.3 Traditional/New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System - Air Conditioning System
1.1.4 Traditional/New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System - Engine, Transmission and Auxiliary System Thermal Management
1.1.5 Traditional/New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System - Battery/Electric Motor/ Electric Control System Thermal Management
1.1.6 New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System--Major Components
1.1.7 Industrial Chain Structure of Thermal Management System
1.2 Related Policies
1.2.1 Preferential Subsidy Policies for New Energy Vehicles in Major Countries around the World (1)
1.2.2 Preferential Subsidy Policies for New Energy Vehicles in Major Countries around the World (2)
1.2.3 Global New Energy Vehicle Incentives
1.2.4 China's National Policy to Promote Long-term Benefits of New Energy Vehicle Market
1.2.5 National New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management Safety Regulatory Policy
1.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System Industry Standard - Air Conditioning System
1.2.7 New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System Industry Standard -Power Battery Thermal Management
1.3 Development Trend of New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System
1.3.1 Development Trend of China's New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System Market
1.3.2 Characteristics that New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System Products should meet
1.3.3 Development of Core Technology of New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System
1.3.4 New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System Systematic and Modular Development
1.3.5 Automotive Thermal Management System - Architectural Upgrade
1.3.6 Automotive Thermal Management System - Architectural Change
2 Current Situation and Trends of New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management Market
2.1 Global New Energy Vehicle Sales Forecast
2.1.1 Global New Energy Vehicle Policies and Incentives
2.1.2 Global New Energy Vehicle Sales Forecast
2.1.3 Global New Energy Vehicle Sales
2.1.4 Global New Energy (EV + PHEV) Passenger Car Sales
2.1.5 Global New Energy (EV + PHEV) Passenger Car Sales by Brand
2.1.6 Global New Energy (EV + PHEV) Passenger Car Sales by Model
2.2 China's New Energy Vehicle Dales/Ownership
2.2.1 China Sales
2.2.2 China Motor Vehicle/Car Ownership
2.2.3 Car Ownership in China - Urban Distribution
2.2.4 China's Overall Production and Sales of New Energy Vehicles
2.2.5 China's New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales by Fuel Type
2.2.6 China's New Energy Passenger Car Sales
2.2.7 China's New Energy Commercial Vehicle Sales
2.2.8 China New Energy Commercial Vehicle Sales by Category
2.3 China Automotive Thermal Management System Market Size
2.3.1 China New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System Market Size
2.3.2 China New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System Penetration Rate
2.3.3 Global and China New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management Market Size by Segment
2.4 Cost of New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System
2.4.1 Cost Structure
2.4.2 Per-car Value of New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System is about 2-3 times Higher than that of traditional Car
2.5 New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System Competition Landscape
2.5.1 Major Components of New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System
2.5.2 Mass Production of New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System
2.5.3 Main Products and Customers of New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System Suppliers
2.5.4 Technical Characteristics Comparison of Thermal Management System Enterprises
2.5.5 Foreign Automotive Thermal Management Companies have settled in China
2.5.6 Domestic New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management Enterprise Parts and Integrated Product Layout
2.6 New Energy Truck Thermal Management System
2.6.1 New Energy Light truck landed earlier than other types of New Energy Commercial Vehicles
2.6.2 Development of Thermal Management Systems for Commercial Vehicles Lags behind Passenger Cars
2.6.3 new energy light truck thermal management system
2.6.4 Development Trend of New Energy Light Truck Thermal Management System Architecture
2.6.5 New Energy Light Truck Thermal Management Typical Models (1)
2.6.6 New Energy Light Truck Thermal Management Typical Models (2)
2.6.7 Supplier List of New Energy Light Truck Thermal Management Parts
2.6.8 New Energy Light Truck Vehicle Thermal Management System Case
2.6.9New Energy Light Truck Vehicle Thermal Management System: Electric Compressor
2.6.10 FAW Jiefang Hybrid Heavy Truck: Thermal Management Integrated System
2.7 Thermal Management System for Fuel Cell Commercial Vehicles
2.7.1 Core Components of Fuel Cell Thermal Management System
2.7.2 Structure Diagram of Fuel Cell Thermal Management System
2.7.3 FAW Jiefang Fuel Cell Truck: Thermal Management Integrated System
2.8 Applications of Thermal Management in other Fields
2.8.1 New Energy Vehicle Battery Thermal Management Dystem Overflows to Energy Storage Thermal Management industry (1)
2.8.2 New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System Overflows to 5G Base Station Industry
2.8.3 New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System Overflows to Data Center (IDC) industry
3 Analysis of New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management Industry Chain
3.1 New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management Industry Chain Integration
3.1.1 New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System - Parts
3.1.2 Thermal Management System - System Integration Architecture
3.1.3 Thermal Management Systems System Integration: Core Supplier Business and Product Progress (1)
3.1.4 Thermal Management Systems System Integration: Core Supplier Business and Product Progress (2)
3.1.5 Thermal Management Systems System Integration: Core Supplier Business and Product Progress (3)
3.1.6 Thermal Management Systems System Integration: Core Supplier Business and Product Progress (4)
3.2 New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System - PTC heater
3.2.1 Development Trend of New Energy Vehicle PTC/Heat Pump Air Conditioner
3.2.2 Air conditioning System of PTC air heater
3.2.3 PTC Electric Heater
3.2.4 PTC Heater Classification and Application
3.2.5 Comparison of Typical PTC Heater Products
3.2.6 Application Case of PTC Heater in Heat Pump Air Conditioning System (1)
3.2.7 Application Case of PTC Heater in Heat Pump Air Conditioning System (2)
3.2.8 Thermal Management Systems - PTC Heaters: Core Supplier Business and Product Progress
3.2.9 Thermal Management Systems - 800V Heaters - Core Supplier Business and Product Progress
3.2.10 800V Liquid Heater - Product Case
3.2.11 PTC Heater Development Trend and Size forecast
3.3 New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management System - Heat Pump Air Conditioner
3.3.1 Working Principle
3.3.2 Structure
3.3.3 Parts
3.3.4 Vehicle Assembly
3.3.5 Model Installation
3.3.6 Principle of Three-source Heat Pump System
3.3.7 Development Trend and Scale Forecast
3.3.8 Core Suppliers and Business Progress (1)
3.3.9 Core Suppliers and Business Progress (2)
3.3.10 Core Suppliers and Business Progress (3)
3.3.11 Dolphin Car Heat Pump Air Conditioning System
3.3.12 Heat Pump Air Conditioning System Case - Tesla Octovalve highly Integrated Eight-way valve Heat Pump System
3.3.13 Heat Pump Air Conditioning System Case - Volkswagen MEB Platform Architecture
3.4 New Energy Vehicle Heat Pump Air Conditioning System -Refrigerant
3.4.1 Heat Pump Air Conditioning Refrigerants - Development Stage
3.4.2 Heat Pump Air Conditioning Refrigerant - Environmental Performance
3.4.3 Heat Pump Air Conditioning Refrigerant-Heat Material Performance/Heating Performance Comparison
3.4.4 Heat Pump Air Conditioning Refrigerants - Cost Comparison
3.4.5 CO2 Heat Pump Refrigerants - Core Components
3.4.6 Thermal Management Systems - CO2 Refrigerant Components: Domestic Core Supplier Business and Product Progress
3.4.7 Heat Pump Air Conditioning Refrigerant - Development Route
3.4.8 Development of Heat Pump Air Conditioning Refrigerant-CO2 Technology Route