This new Smithers research explores the concentrated folding cartons market, investigating the key trends driving growth.
Key facts:
Almost 57 million tonnes of cartonboard material were produced globally during 2024, reflecting an increase of more than 6% from the previous year
The value of the market in 2024 is estimated at just under $60 billion, indicating a 9.5% growth in value over 2023.
During 2024, total actual consumption of folding carton packaging amounted to just over 50 million tonnes, worth an estimated $180 billion, and reflecting a volume growth of almost 5% over the 2023 tonnage.
The market is influenced by major economic shifts including GDP growth, household consumption expenditure, population trends, and urbanisation, among others. Technologically, the market is being influenced further, with sustainability undoubtedly being one of the main trends.
Folding cartons are a form of paperboard-based packaging that is folded and closed to keep products contained. It is made up of different grades of paper, and different flutes and has applications in both food and beverage and non-food applications
Key Questions:
What role can folding cartons play in the changing sustainable packaging landscape?
Where will the folding cartons market show largest growth over the next 5 years?
How will the market be affected by incoming legislation?
Which areas will struggle to adapt to the changing market landscape?
This report is essential to:
Packaging raw material suppliers
Packaging converters and manufacturers
Retailers and brand owners
Table of Contents
Executive summary
Introduction and methodology
Introduction
Objectives
Scope
Methodology
Definitions
Changes from previous editions
Market drivers and trends, 2020-30
Introduction
The global cartonboard industry
Production
Major producers
Trade
Apparent consumption
The global folding carton industry
Conversion
Major converters
Trade
Actual consumption
Key issues and trends facing the industry
Global economic influences
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Household consumption expenditure (HCE)
Population
Urbanisation
Demographic trends
Smaller households and family units
Smaller unit packaging
Internet and e-commerce
Retail trends
Market size
Future prospects
Leading players
Push for environmental sustainability in folding carton grades
Capacity changes in the world supply of folding carton materials
Growth in demand for luxury packaging and penetration of premium paperboard grades
Legislation and regulation
European regulations
US Regulations
Technology forecasts
Introduction
Summary
Lightweighting of paperboard grades
Emergence of 'smart' packaging
Digital Product Passports (DPP)
Penetration of digital printing
Personalisation and customisation
Anti-counterfeit and security packaging
Evolution of functional and barrier coatings
Sustainable packaging - market opportunities for folding cartons to 2030
Global retail e-commerce sales growth, 2017-27, AGR%
Global retail sales, 2021-27, $ trillion
Tables
Technology impact table
Exchange rates to the US dollar ($), 2020-24
Global cartonboard production, 2020 to 2024, volume and value , by sector, region and country, '000 tonnes and $ million
Major producers of cartonboard, 2024, volume and value, global, in order by volume
Global trade in cartonboard, exports, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, '000 tonnes and $ million
Global trade in cartonboard, imports, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, '000 tonnes and $ million
Global apparent consumption of cartonboard, 2020-24, volume and value, by sector, region and country, '000 tonnes and $ million
Global cartonboard conversion, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, by sector, region and country, '000 tonnes and $ million
Major global converters of cartonboard, 2024, volume and value
Major global converters of folding cartons only, 2024, volume and value
Major global converters of microflute only, 2024, volume and value
Global trade in folding cartons, exports, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, '000 tonnes and $ million
Global trade in folding cartons, imports, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, '000 tonnes and $ million
Global actual consumption of folding carton, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, by sector, region and country, '000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast real growth in GDP, 2020-2030, %AGR
Household consumption expenditure, major countries, CAGR/AGR%
Global population, 2020 to 2030, millions
Urbanisation, % of population, selected countries, 2000-2030
Major players in grocery retailing, 2023
Capacity changes, 2022 to 2024
Capacity changes by board grade, 2022 to 2024 ('000 tonnes)
New paper machine installations, 2022 to 2024 ('000 tonnes)
Rebuilds, upgrades and grade switches, 2022 to 2024 ('000 tonnes)
Shutdowns, 2022 to 2024 ('000 tonnes)
Technology impact table
Market share of virgin material, 2020 to 2030, % of total volume
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume of folding cartons, 2020-30, by print process, '000 tonnes
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume of folding cartons, 2020-30, by construction format, '000 tonnes
Actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2024, according to construction format, by region and country ('000 tonnes) and $ million
Historic and forecast production volume and value of cartonboard, 2020-30, by grade, '000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast production volume and value of solid bleached board/sulphate (SBB/S), 2020-30, by sector, region and country, '000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast production volume and value of solid unbleached board/sulphate (SUB/S), 2020-30, by sector, region and country, '000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast production volume and value of folding boxboard (FBB), 2020-30, by sector, region, and country, '000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast production volume and value of coated recycled board (CRB)/white-lined chipboard (WLC), 2020-30, by sector, region and country, '000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast production volume and value of uncoated recycled board (URB), 2020-30, by sector, region and country, '000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast apparent consumption volume and value of cartonboard packaging, 2020-30, by sector, region and country, '000 tonnes and $ million
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020-30, by sector, region and country, '000 tonnes and $ million
For each end-use sector:
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020-30, '000 tonnes and $ million
Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025-30
List of end-use sectors:
Food
Fresh food
Frozen food
Chilled food
Dry food
Baked foods
Savoury snacks
Dair products
Confectionery
Preserved foods
Baby food
Dry beverages
Foodservice
Other food
Pet food
Drinks
Soft drinks
Beer and cider
Wine
Spirits and other alcohol
Non-food
Healthcare
Personal care
Tobacco
Household care
Paper products
Hardware and electrical
Other non-foods
Global ranking of countries by volume and value of cartonboard packaging consumption, 2024
Global ranking of countries by compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of cartonboard packaging volume consumption, CAGR % 2025-30
Global ranking of countries by volume per capita of cartonboard packaging consumption, 2024, kg/person
North America: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
North America: Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
North America: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020-30, '000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
North America: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025-30, by end-use sector
For each country:
Key facts
Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020-30, '000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025-30, by end-use sector
List of countries:
US
Canada
Mexico
South and Central America: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
South and Central America: Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
South and Central America: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020-30, '000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
South and Central America: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025-30, by end-use sector
For each country:
Key facts
Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020-30, '000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025-30, by end-use sector
List of countries:
Brazil
Other South and Central America
Western Europe: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Western Europe: Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Western Europe: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020-30, '000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
For each country:
Key facts
Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020-30, '000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025-30, by end-use sector
Eastern Europe: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020-30, '000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
Eastern Europe: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025-30, by end-use sector
For each country:
Key facts
Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020-30, '000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025-30, by end-use sector
Middle East: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020-30, '000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
Middle East: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025-30, by end-use sector
For each country:
Key facts
Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020-30, '000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025-30, by end-use sector
Asia: Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Asia: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020-30, '000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
Asia: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025-30, by end-use sector
For each country:
Key facts
Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 ('000 tonnes/$ million)
Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020-30, '000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025-30, by end-use sector