세계의 바이오디젤(Biodiesel) 시장 규모는 2023년 411억 5,000만 달러에서 2031년에 763억 4,000만 달러에 달할 것으로 예상되며, 2024-2031년 예측 기간에 CAGR로 8.03%로 추이하며 성장 할 것으로 예상됩니다. 2021년에 비해 2022년 세계 바이오연료 수요는 6% 증가하여 연간 91억 리터에 해당합니다. 이 성장은 미국과 유럽의 유리한 규제 때문입니다. 또한 인도와 브라질에서는 금융우대와 혼합 요건에 힘입어 바이오디젤 수요가 증가하고 있습니다. 인도네시아에서는 30%의 바이오디젤 혼합이 의무화되어 바이오디젤 사용 증가를 볼 수 있습니다.
IEA에 따르면 2023년 세계에서 연간 482억 리터의 바이오디젤이 소비되었습니다. 바이오연료 수요의 대부분은 개발 도상국, 특히 브라질, 인도네시아, 인도에서 왔습니다. 이 3개국은 각각 강력한 규제를 갖고, 수송용 연료의 요구가 높아지고 있어 원료공급도 풍부하고, 바이오디젤의 사용이 가장 많습니다. 미국, 캐나다, 일본, 유럽연합 등 선진국들은 운송규제를 강화하고 있습니다. 그러나 전기차의 보급, 자동차 효율의 향상, 바이오연료 비용의 상승, 기술적 제약 등 요인에 의해 매출의 성장은 한정되고 있습니다.
GHG 배출 감축을 목적으로 한 규제는 GHG 배출이 적고 폐기물과 잔류물로 만들어진 바이오디젤 수요를 촉진하고 있습니다. 한편, 바이오디젤 이용 확대의 주된 촉진요인이 되고 있는 것은 신흥경제국이며, 외국산 석유의 수입을 최소화하고 국내 자원을 최대한 이용하여 지역경제를 지원한다는 2 하나의 목표를 내걸고 있습니다. 또한, 바이오연료를 사용함으로써 이들 국가에서는 온실가스 배출을 줄일 수 있습니다.
바이오디젤은 연소와 관련된 대기 오염이 적은 디젤 연료를 대체하는 재생 가능한 대체 연료로 기존 디젤 엔진에 사용할 수 있습니다. 바이오디젤은 동물성 유지, 농산물 원료, 재생 식용유 등으로 만들어집니다. 발전 및 수송 용도로 기존의 화석연료의 대체로 바이오디젤 수요가 높아지고 있기 때문에 시장 확대가 전망되고 있습니다.
온실가스(GHG)의 배출을 억제하면서 친환경적이고 완전연소를 보장하는 연료에 대한 요구가 증가하고 있는 것도 시장을 뒷받침하는 주요 요인 중 하나입니다. 바이오디젤은 현행 디젤 엔진과의 뛰어난 호환성을 가지고 있기 때문에 수요가 뒷받침되고 있습니다. 바이오디젤을 사용하는 자동차 및 기타 산업의 수는 인구가 증가함에 따라 바이오디젤 시장 수요가 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.
시장을 독점하는 운송 부문
이산화탄소 배출을 줄이는 데 도움이 되는 바이오디젤과 같은 친환경 연료에 대한 수요가 증가하고 있기 때문에 운송 부문이 세계 바이오디젤 시장을 선도할 것으로 예상됩니다. 대기를 오염시키고 심장병과 호흡 곤란을 일으키는 운송 산업의 탄소 배출로 인해 사람들은 환경 안전에 대한 인식을 높이고 있습니다. 바이오디젤은 재생 가능한 디젤 대체 연료이며 기존 디젤 엔진을 개조하지 않고 사용할 수 있습니다. 따라서 운송 부문의 바이오디젤 수요가 증가하고 있습니다.
예를 들어, 미국 에너지부(DOE)는 2023년 1월 동국의 산업 및 운송 요구에 대응하는 지속가능한 바이오연료 제작을 서두르기 위해 17개 프로젝트에 1억 1,800만 달러를 투입한다고 선언했습니다. 화석연료의 배출을 억제하는 지속가능한 연료공급을 위해, 예비시험이나 실증시험으로부터 바이오리파이너리 개발을 진행함으로써, 선택된 프로젝트는 바이오연료 및 바이오제품의 국내 생산을 늘리게 됩니다.
인도네시아가 생산에서 가장 큰 시장
인도네시아에서는 800만 킬로리터를 넘는 바이오디젤이 생산되어 국내외 수요에 대응할 수 있는 강력한 산업임이 입증되었습니다. 인도네시아의 바이오디젤 생산력은 1,200만 킬로리터를 넘는 것으로 보고되어 바이오디젤 수요 증가를 충족할 준비가 되어 있음을 보여줍니다.
세계의 바이오디젤(Biodiesel) 시장에 대해 조사 분석했으며, 시장 규모 및 예측/시장 역학/주요 기업 현황 및 전망 등 정보를 제공합니다.
Global biodiesel market is expected to observe a CAGR of 8.03% during the forecast period 2024-2031, rising from USD 41.15 billion in 2023 to USD 76.34 billion in 2031. Compared to 2021, the global demand for biofuels increased by 6% in 2022, equivalent to 9,100 million liters per year. The growth is attributed to favorable regulations in the United States and Europe. Additionally, India and Brazil are experiencing rising demand for biodiesel, supported by financial incentives and blending requirements. Indonesia has seen increased biodiesel usage due to its 30% biodiesel blending mandate.
According to IEA, in 2023, 48.2 billion liters per year of biodiesel was consumed globally. Most of the demand for biofuels is coming from developing nations, especially Brazil, Indonesia, and India. Each of the three nations have strong regulations, a growing need for transportation fuel, and a plentiful supply of feedstock, with the highest usage of biodiesel. Advanced economies such as the United States, Canada, Japan, and European Union are tightening their transportation regulations. However, volume growth is limited due to factors such as the increasing popularity of electric vehicles, improvements in vehicle efficiency, high biofuel costs, and technological constraints.
Regulations intended to reduce GHG emissions are driving demand of biodiesel, as it has low GHG emissions and is made from wastes and residues. Meanwhile, emerging economies are the main drivers of the growing use of biodiesel, with the dual goals of minimizing the use of foreign oil imports and maximizing the use of domestic resources to support local economies. Additionally, using biofuels lowers greenhouse gas emissions in these nations.
Biodiesel is a clean-burning, renewable alternative to diesel that can be utilized in existing diesel engines. It is made from an increasing range of animal fats, agricultural feedstock, and recycled cooking oil. The market is expected to increase due to rising demand for biodiesel as an alternative to conventional fossil fuels in power generation and transportation applications.
One of the key elements propelling the market is the increasing need for fuels that are environmentally friendly and assure complete combustion while lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Demand is being driven by biodiesel's excellent compatibility with current diesel engines. The number of cars and other industries using biodiesel, together with the population growth are predicted to increase demand for biodiesel in the market.
Transportation Segment to Dominate Market
Due to the rising demand for environmentally friendly fuels such as biodiesel, which help lower carbon emissions, the transportation segment is expected to lead the global biodiesel market. People are becoming more conscious of environmental safety due to the transportation industry's carbon emissions, which contaminate the air and contribute to heart disease and breathing difficulties. Biodiesel is a renewable diesel replacement utilized in existing diesel engines without modifications. It raises the demand for biodiesel in the transportation sector.
For instance, in January 2023, the US Department of Energy (DOE) declared that it would put USD 118 million into 17 projects to hasten the creation of sustainable biofuels for the country's industry and transportation needs. By advancing biorefinery development, from pre-pilot and demonstration to supply sustainable fuels that limit emissions associated with fossil fuels, the selected projects will increase domestic production of biofuels and bioproducts.
Indonesia Holds the Largest Market in Terms of Production
Over 8 million kiloliters of biodiesel have been produced in Indonesia, demonstrating a strong industry that can meet both local and international demand. With a reported capacity of over 12 million kiloliters, the nation has a sizable capability for producing biodiesel, indicating its readiness to satisfy rising biodiesel demand.
By blending diesel with Fatty Acid Methyl Ester (FAME) derived from palm oil, Indonesia intends to reduce fuel imports, increase domestic demand for palm oil, and lower emissions. The mandate, which has been expanded to include a nationwide B20 program in 2018, a B30 program in 2020, and a 35% blending rate by August 2023, is carried out by Pertamina in collaboration with private enterprises. Tests comparing the performance of two diesel fuel types with different degrees of bio components are part of the government's effort to surpass 35% of blending rates. The government started testing a 50% renewable diesel blend in May 2023, focusing on heavy equipment used in the mining industry. The successful implementation of the B30 program, mandating a 30% biodiesel blend in diesel fuel, demonstrates Indonesia's commitment to renewable energy and its leading role in the global biofuel initiatives.
Global Biofuels Alliance to Influence Market Growth
In September 2023, as the G20 Chair, India initiated the Global Biofuels Alliance (GBA), a multi-stakeholder collaboration of governments, international organizations, and industries that brings together largest producers and users of biofuels to promote the development and use of biofuels. The project seeks to establish biofuels as a vital component of energy transition and a driver of employment and economic expansion.
Through facilitating capacity-building exercises across the value chain, providing technical support for national programs and, encouraging the sharing of policy lessons technology advancements, and the increasing use of sustainable biofuels with the involvement of a wide range of stakeholders, the Alliance hopes to accelerate the global uptake of biofuels. To encourage the use and trading of biofuels, GBA seeks to create globally accepted standards, norms, and sustainability principles. The alliance will promote international cooperation for the promotion of biofuels by acting as a knowledge base and expert hub.
Rising Demand for Low-Carbon Emission Products
Biodiesel is devoid of sulfur compounds and aromatics, making it easy to use, biodegradable, and non-toxic. It is compatible with the majority of diesel engines, produces fewer greenhouse gases and air pollutants, and emits less harmful carbon-based emissions. The biodiesel business is expanding due to growing concerns about greenhouse gas emissions from the use of fossil fuels. In addition to a lower harmful and carcinogenic aromatic carbon content than petroleum diesel, biodiesel can cut greenhouse gas emissions by up to 50%.
For instance, Indonesia has submitted its latest commitment to the UNFCC, setting updated targets of a 31.89% reduction and a 43.2% reduction by 2030. The increase is conditional and shows that lowering emissions without help from abroad is a priority. To position biofuels as the main energy source for its transportation sector by 2050, Indonesia has devised the Long-Term Low Carbon Strategy (LTS-LCCR 2050). The transition entails gradually switching from gasoline to renewable diesel, bioethanol, and biodiesel derived from palm oil.
Future Market Scenario (2024 - 2031F)
Demand for biodiesel is expected to increase due to developments in transportation fleets, greater demand from consumers, and improvements in domestic policies. By 2031, global ethanol and biodiesel production is expected to rise to 140 billion liters and 55 billion liters, respectively, as a result of growth in Asian nations that support domestic production with tax breaks, subsidies, and low-interest loans for investments. Different nations use different feedstocks for biodiesel products, becoming more aware of the sustainability of biofuel production.
By 2031, ethanol mix rate in the United States will reach 11%. The European Union will continue to generate the most biodiesel globally, with a decline in production shares from 30.7% to 28% worldwide. By 2031, advanced biofuel sources are predicted to rise from 24% to 37% of total biofuel consumption in European Union, while overall biofuel usage is predicted to decline by 1.5% per annum. As it poses a high risk of ILUC, palm oil-based biodiesel is projected to see a decrease in consumption. Over the next ten years, Brazil is predicted to consume more fuel overall, underpinning the potential growth of blending biofuels into gasoline and diesel. By 2031, Indonesia is expected to produce 10.9 billion liters of biodiesel. European Union's environmental regulations and high-income countries' decreasing diesel use are expected to increase their exports during the forecast years.
In 2021, due to rising soybean oil prices and production expenses, the Argentina government lowered the biodiesel mix rate from 10% to 5%, which is estimated to increase to 8.5% in 2031. Tax exemptions will continue to boost the development of the country's biodiesel market. The Thailand government plans to gradually decrease its ethanol subsidy by 2022, with higher blends expected to be less affected. Blending is expected to reach 16%, and its production is projected to increase to 2 billion litter by 2031. Biodiesel demand will be supported by obligatory blending rates, with subsidies favoring B20 and B10. However, limited palm oil supply and high vegetable oil prices will constrain domestic supply.
Key Players Landscape and Outlook
The global biodiesel market is dominated due to their extensive production capacities and advanced technologies. The market outlook is expected to be positive, driven by increasing demand for cleaner transportation fuels and government policies. Regulations and incentives are encouraging biodiesel adoption, while advancements in production technology and feedstock diversification enhance efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Key players are expanding operations and forming strategic partnerships to improve biodiesel production and distribution. Innovations in feedstock and processing technologies are expected to further boost market growth.
For instance, in October 2023, Neste completed the merger of Neste Engineering Solutions Oy (NES) into Neste Corporation. As a result of the merger, NES is expected to provide a high-quality technology and engineering services for oil and gas, petrochemicals, and bio-based industries.
For instance, in June 2022, Chevron completed the acquisition of Renewable Energy Group. The acquisition aims to make Chevron one of the leading renewable fuel companies in the United States, offering cost-effective and lower carbon solutions to utilize in current fleets and infrastructure. The executive vice president of Downstream & Chemicals stated that the merger will enhance Chevron's offerings.
All segments will be provided for all regions and countries covered
Companies mentioned above DO NOT hold any order as per market share and can be changed as per information available during research work.