세계 원전 해체 시장 규모는 2024년 72억 달러에 달했습니다. 향후 시장은 2033년까지 110억 달러에 달할 것으로 예상되며, 2025년부터 2033년까지 4.63%의 연평균 성장률(CAGR)을 보일 것으로 예측됩니다. 재생에너지원의 이용 증가, 원자로 가동 중단, 방사성 폐기물 관리에 대한 집중 등이 시장 성장을 촉진하고 있습니다.
재생에너지에 대한 수요 증가
태양광, 풍력, 수력 등 재생에너지는 원자력 등 기존 에너지원에 비해 비용 경쟁력이 높아지고 있습니다. 따라서 에너지 시장에서 원자력과 직접적으로 경쟁할 수 있는 재생에너지의 움직임이 커지고 있습니다. 이러한 경쟁은 원자력발전소의 수익성과 생존 가능성에 영향을 미쳐 조기 폐로로 이어질 수 있습니다. 이와 더불어 환경 문제, 원자력의 안전성, 방사성 폐기물 처리에 대한 국민들의 인식이 높아지면서 에너지원에 대한 여론과 선택에 영향을 미칠 수 있어 시장 성장을 뒷받침하고 있습니다. 재생에너지는 일반적으로 원자력에 비해 깨끗하고 안전하며 지속가능한 에너지로 인식되고 있습니다. 따라서 재생에너지에 대한 여론의 지지와 수요가 증가하고 있습니다. 이러한 여론의 변화는 재생에너지 개발을 우선시하는 동시에 원자력발전을 단계적으로 폐지하도록 정책 입안자들에게 압력을 가하고 있으며, 이는 원자력 시설의 폐로로 이어지고 있습니다. 원자력발전소의 해체는 재생에너지와 같은 다른 에너지원의 도입으로 이어지고 있습니다. 국제에너지기구의 보고서에 따르면, 2028년에는 재생에너지가 전 세계 발전량의 42% 이상을 차지하게 될 것이며, 풍력과 태양광발전의 비중은 25%로 두 배로 늘어날 것으로 예상됩니다.
원자로 정지
2024년 세계원자력협회의 보고서에 따르면 지난 20년간 전 세계적으로 107기의 원자로가 정지되었습니다. 원자로의 수명이 다하거나 경제성이 없어지면 원자로는 영구적으로 정지됩니다. 이에 따라 전 세계적으로 원전 해체 프로젝트가 증가하고 있습니다. 원자로의 폐쇄가 증가함에 따라 복잡한 폐로 과정을 안전하고 효율적이며 비용 효율적으로 관리할 수 있는 숙련된 전문가와 기업에 대한 수요가 증가하고 있습니다. 이와 더불어, 원자로의 정지는 첨단 폐로 기술과 방법의 개발로 이어지고 있습니다. 기업들은 보다 안전하고 효율적이며 비용 효율적인 해체, 오염 제거, 폐기물 관리, 부지 복구 방법을 찾기 위해 연구개발(R&D) 활동에 투자하고 있으며, 이는 원전 해체 시장의 성장에 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됩니다.
방사성 폐기물 관리에 대한 관심 증가
2022년 태평양 북서부 국립연구소(PNNL)의 보고서에 따르면 전 세계 고체 방사성 폐기물 재고량은 약 3,800만m3이며, 이 중 81%는 영구 처분되었고, 19%는 최종 처분을 기다리는 상태로 보관되어 있습니다. 방사성 폐기물은 폐로 시에도 발생하는데, 이는 중요한 과제가 되고 있습니다. 그 결과, 방사성 폐기물의 혁신적인 처리 및 처분 방법에 대한 수요가 증가하고 있습니다. 또한, 규제 기관은 해체 활동 중에 발생하는 방사성 폐기물의 안전한 관리 및 처분에 대해 엄격한 규정을 적용하고 있습니다. 이러한 규제를 준수하는 것은 폐로 프로젝트를 진행하기 위한 인허가를 받는 데 필수적입니다. 환경 및 안전 문제를 해결하기 위해 규정이 변화하고 있기 때문에 원전 해체에 참여하는 기업들은 이러한 규정을 준수하기 위해 폐기물 관리 솔루션에 투자하고 있습니다. 또한, 효과적인 방사성 폐기물 관리는 공중 보건 및 환경 보호의 핵심입니다. 방사성 폐기물을 부적절하게 취급하거나 폐기하면 토양, 물, 대기의 오염을 유발하고 인체 건강과 환경에 장기적인 위험을 초래할 수 있습니다. 또한, 규제 당국, 지역사회, 환경단체 등 이해관계자들은 방사성 폐기물이 안전하고 책임감 있게 처리될 수 있도록 폐로 프로젝트를 엄격하게 점검하고 있습니다.
The global nuclear decommissioning market size reached USD 7.2 Billion in 2024. Looking forward, it is expected that the market will reach USD 11.0 Billion by 2033, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 4.63% during 2025-2033. Rising utilization of renewable energy sources, shutting down of nuclear reactors, and focus on radioactive waste management are expanding the market growth.
Increasing demand for renewable energy sources
Renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydropower are now becoming more cost-competitive with the traditional sources such as nuclear power. Therefore, the trend of renewable energy is increasing, which can directly compete with nuclear power in the energy market. The competition can affect the profitability and viability of the nuclear power plants, which results in their early decommissioning. Besides this, the rising public awareness about environmental issues and nuclear safety and radioactive waste disposal that can affect public opinion and choices on energy sources is supporting the market growth. Renewable energy is usually recognized as cleaner, safer, and more sustainable compared to nuclear power. This, in turn, is increasing the public support and demand for renewable energy initiatives. This change in the public opinion can create a pressure on the policymakers to prioritize the development of renewable energy and at the same time phase out the nuclear power, which is leading to the decommissioning of the nuclear facilities. The dismantlement of nuclear power plants is leading to the adoption of other energy sources like the renewable energy. According to the International Energy Agency report, it is expected that the renewable energy sources will account for over 42% of global electricity generation in 2028, with the share of wind and solar PV doubling to 25%.
Shutting down of nuclear reactors
The World Nuclear Association report of 2024 claims that over the past 20 years, 107 nuclear reactors were shut down across the globe. As nuclear reactors reach the end of their operational lifespans or become economically unviable, they are shut down permanently. Thus the number of nuclear decommissioning projects is rising around the world. With the growing number of reactors being shut down, there is an increasing demand for skilled professionals and firms that can manage the complex decommissioning process safely, efficiently, and cost-effectively. Besides this, the shutdown of nuclear reactors is leading to the development of advanced decommissioning technologies and methods. Companies are spending on research and development (R&D) activities to come up with the safer, more efficient, and cost-effective ways of dismantling, decontamination, waste management, and site remediation, which is anticipated to influence the nuclear decommissioning market growth.
Rising focus on radioactive waste management
As per the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) report of 2022, the total global inventory of solid radioactive waste was approximately 38 million m3, of which 81% of the total waste was disposed of permanently and a further 19% was in storage awaiting for final disposal. Radioactive waste is also generated during decommissioning activities, which is becoming a significant challenge. As a result, there is an increasing demand for innovative waste treatment and disposable methods for radioactive waste. Moreover, regulatory agencies are imposing strict rules for the safe management and disposal of radioactive waste that is produced during decommissioning activities. The compliance with these regulations is vital for getting the permits and the approvals to proceed with the decommissioning projects. As rules are changing to deal with the environmental and safety issues, firms participating in nuclear decommissioning are investing in waste management solutions to comply with these rules. In addition, effective radioactive waste management is the key to the protection of public health and the environment. Improper handling or throwing away the radioactive waste can cause the pollution of the soil, water, and air, which is leading long-term dangers to human health and the environment. Furthermore, stakeholders, among which regulatory authorities, local communities, and environmental organizations, are closely examining decommissioning projects to make sure that the radioactive waste is handled safely and responsibly.
Pressurized water reactor (PWR) accounts for the majority of the market share
Pressure water reactor (PWR) is the most used reactor technology for nuclear power generation around the world. As many of these reactors are approaching the end of their operational life spans, the need for decommissioning services is increasing. Additionally, PWRs are huge in size in comparison to other reactors, which, in turn, causes the decommissioning processes to be complicated and requires a lot of resources and experts. Moreover, PWR decommissioning projects usually involve large amounts of radioactive waste, requiring sophisticated waste management solutions.
Immediate dismantling holds the largest share of the industry
The instant removal of the radioactive materials and structures from a decommissioned nuclear facility is the immediate dismantling. This approach allows for the release of the site for potential reuse or redevelopment, minimizing the long-term financial liabilities associated with maintaining a decommissioned facility. Besides this, nuclear decommissioning market recent development of the technology and expertise is making the immediate dismantling feasible and cost-effective, thereby driving its widespread adoption.
Upto 800 MW represents the leading market segment
Smaller reactors within this segment tend to be older and less economically viable to operate compared to larger and more modern plants. Consequently, they are more likely to be decommissioned. Furthermore, regulatory requirements and safety standards for decommissioning are generally similar regardless of plant size, and complexities and challenges associated with decommissioning smaller reactors are often comparable to those of larger ones. As a result, decommissioning projects for reactors up to 800 MW represent a substantial portion of the overall nuclear decommissioning demand.
Europe leads the market, accounting for the largest nuclear decommissioning market share
The report has also provided a comprehensive analysis of all the major regional markets, which include North America (the United States and Canada); Asia Pacific (China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, and others); Europe (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Russia, and others); Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, and others); and the Middle East and Africa. According to the report, Europe represents the largest regional market for nuclear decommissioning.
According to the World Nuclear Association report of 2024, in UK 36 nuclear reactors were shut down by 2024. Europe has a notable number of ageing nuclear power plants that are reaching the end of their operational lifespans. As many of these plants were built several decades ago and decommissioning them are becoming a necessity. Secondly, European countries have stringent regulatory frameworks governing nuclear safety and decommissioning, which necessitate thorough planning and compliance with rigorous standards. These regulations create a robust framework for decommissioning activities, ensuring that they are carried out safely and responsibly.