세계의 자동차용 변속기 시장 규모는 2024년에 2,262억 3,000만 달러로 평가되며, 2026-2032년에 CAGR 5.80%로 성장하며, 2032년에는 3,408억 7,000만 달러에 달할 것으로 예측됩니다.
자동차 변속기는 동력을 바퀴에 전달하여 엔진이 특정 속도 범위 내에서 효율적으로 작동할 수 있도록 하는 자동차의 주요 부품입니다. 내연기관 자동차의 경우, 전기자동차와 달리 엔진은 보조 없이 전 속도 범위에서 작동할 수 없습니다.
변속기는 수동과 자동이 있으며, 엔진의 성능을 최적의 범위로 유지하면서 다양한 속도로 주행할 수 있도록 하는 데 중요한 역할을 합니다.
특히 자동변속기는 운전자의 입력 없이도 자동으로 변속이 이루어지기 때문에 그 편리함 때문에 많은 운전자들이 선호하는 선택이 되고 있습니다.
가장 일반적인 유형은 토크 컨버터, 유압 제어 장비, 유성 기어 장비의 조합을 통해 동력 전달을 관리하는 유압식 자동 변속기입니다. 토크 컨버터는 수동 변속기에 사용되는 클러치를 대체하고 유체 역학을 이용하여 기어 간의 원활한 전환을 보장합니다.
세계 자동차 변속기 시장을 형성하는 주요 시장 역학은 다음과 같습니다.
전기자동차(EV)와 하이브리드 모델로의 전환: 전동화로의 전환은 자동차 변속기 시장을 재편하고, 새롭고 혁신적인 변속기 시스템을 필요로 하고 있습니다. 국제에너지기구(IEA)에 따르면 세계 전기자동차 판매량은 2022년에 1,000만 대에 달할 것으로 예상되며, 2021년 대비 55% 증가할 것으로 전망하고 있습니다. 또한 IEA는 2032년까지 세계 신차 판매량의 60%를 전기자동차가 차지할 것으로 예측했습니다.
저연비 차량에 대한 수요 증가: 저연비 차량에 대한 소비자의 선호는 엔진 성능을 최적화하고 연료 소비를 줄이는 첨단 변속기 시스템의 개발을 촉진하고 있습니다. 미국 환경보호청(EPA)의 보고서에 따르면 미국 2021년형 신차의 평균 연비는 25.7마일/갤런으로 사상 최고치를 기록했습니다. 유럽자동차산업협회(ACEA)에 따르면 2020년 EU의 신차 승용차에서 배출되는 CO2 배출량은 변속기 기술 향상으로 인해 2019년 대비 12% 감소했습니다.
자동 수동 변속기(AMT) 기술의 발전: 성능과 효율성의 균형을 제공하는 AMT 시스템의 인기가 높아지면서 시장 성장에 기여하고 있습니다.
엄격한 배출가스 규제와 연비 기준: 점점 더 엄격해지는 규제로 인해 제조업체들은 보다 효율적인 변속기 시스템을 개발해야 하는 상황에 직면해 있습니다. 유럽연합(EU)의 CO2 배출 기준은 2021년 이후 출시되는 신차에 대해 전 차종 평균 95g-CO2/km를 달성하도록 요구하고 있습니다. 미국에서는 NHTSA(National Highway Traffic Safety Administration)와 EPA가 기업 평균 연비(CAFE) 기준을 설정하여 2026년까지 승용차와 소형 트럭의 전체 차량 평균 연비를 약 49mpg로 만들 것을 요구하고 있습니다.
주요 과제
높은 제조 및 유지보수 비용: 첨단 변속기 시스템은 더 복잡하므로 제조 및 유지보수 비용이 더 높습니다. 미국 노동 통계국에 따르면 복잡한 변속기 시스템 정비에 필요한 전문 기술을 반영하여 2020년 자동차 서비스 기술자 및 정비사의 평균 시급은 22.54달러로 나타났습니다.
전기자동차(EV)로의 전환: EV로의 전환은 일부 분야에서 기술 혁신을 촉진하는 한편, 많은 EV가 복잡한 다단 변속기를 필요로 하지 않기 때문에 기존 변속기 시장 성장 억제요인으로 작용하고 있습니다. 국제에너지기구(IEA)의 보고서에 따르면 2021년 세계 전기자동차 판매량은 660만 대에 달하고, 2020년 대비 108% 증가할 것으로 예상했습니다. 블룸버그 NEF에 따르면 2040년까지 전 세계 신차 승용차 판매량의 58%를 차지할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 기존 변속기 시장을 축소시킬 수 있습니다.
공급망 혼란: 세계 공급망 문제는 변속기 제조업체를 포함한 자동차 산업에 영향을 미치고 있습니다. 유럽자동차산업협회(ACEA)의 보고서에 따르면 2021년 EU의 신차 등록대수는 2020년 대비 2.4% 감소했는데, 이는 공급망 문제가 부품 공급력에 영향을 미쳤기 때문이라고 합니다. 1,130만 대 감소할 것으로 예측됩니다.
차량 경량화에 대한 관심 증가: 자동차 업계에서는 연비 향상을 위해 차량 경량화를 추진하고 있지만, 이는 복잡하고 무거운 변속기 시스템의 사용과 상충되는 경우가 있습니다. 미국 환경보호청(EPA)의 보고에 따르면 차량 중량을 10% 줄이면 연비를 6-8% 향상시킬 수 있다고 합니다.
주요 동향
재생 변속기 수요 증가: 자동차의 수명이 길어지고 수리비가 치솟으면서 재생 변속기에 대한 수요가 증가하고 있습니다. 미국 국제무역위원회에 따르면 변속기를 포함한 미국 재생 자동차 부품 시장은 2021년 71억 달러 규모에 달할 것으로 예상되며, 2022-2032년 연평균 3.2%의 성장률을 보일 것으로 예측됩니다. 유럽 재제조 네트워크는 유럽의 자동차 재제조 부문이 연간 74억 유로에 달하며 변속기는 중요한 구성 요소로 추정하고 있습니다.
변속기의 전동화 전환: 자동차 업계는 더 엄격한 배기가스 규제를 충족하고 연비를 개선하기 위해 전동화 변속기를 채택하고 있습니다. 국제에너지기구(IEA)의 보고서에 따르면 2022년 전기자동차 판매량(순수 전기자동차와 플러그인 하이브리드 포함)은 세계 신차 판매량의 14%를 차지할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 2021년 9%에서 증가한 수치입니다.
변속기에 첨단 기술 통합: 제조업체들은 성능 향상과 예지보전을 위해 AI 및 IoT와 같은 스마트 기술을 변속기 시스템에 통합하고 있습니다.
연속 가변 변속기(CVT)의 보급: CVT 기술은 연비 향상과 부드러운 운전 경험을 제공할 수 있으며, 인기가 높아지고 있으며, CVT의 주요 시장 중 하나인 일본에서는 일본자동차산업협회(JAMA)의 보고에 따르면 2020년에 판매되는 신차 승용차의 약 60%가 CVT를 탑재하고 있습니다.
The Automotive Transmission Market size was valued at USD 226.23 Billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 340.87 Billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.80% from 2026 to 2032.
An automotive transmission is a key component in vehicles that allows the engine to operate efficiently within a specific speed range by transmitting power to the wheels. In internal combustion engine vehicles, unlike electric cars, the engine cannot operate across the entire speed spectrum without assistance.
The transmission, which can either be manual or automatic, is crucial in ensuring that the vehicle can travel at various speeds while keeping the engine's performance within its optimal range.
Automatic transmissions, in particular, have become the preferred choice for many drivers due to their convenience, as they automatically shift gears without the need for driver input.
The most common type is the hydraulic automatic transmission, which relies on a combination of a torque converter, hydraulic controls, and a planetary gear set to manage the transfer of power. The torque converter replaces the clutch used in manual transmissions and ensures smooth transitions between gears by using fluid dynamics.
The key market dynamics that are shaping the global automotive transmission market include:
Transition to Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Hybrid Models: The shift towards electrification is reshaping the automotive transmission market, requiring new and innovative transmission systems. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global electric car sales reached 10 million in 2022, a 55% increase from 2021. The IEA also projects that EVs will account for 60% of new car sales globally by 2032.
Increasing Demand for Fuel-Efficient Vehicles: Consumer preference for fuel-efficient vehicles is driving the development of advanced transmission systems that optimize engine performance and reduce fuel consumption. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reports that the average fuel economy for new 2021 model-year vehicles in the U.S. reached a record high of 25.7 miles per gallon. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), CO2 emissions from new passenger cars in the EU decreased by 12% in 2020 compared to 2019, partly due to improved transmission technologies.
Advancements in Automated Manual Transmission (AMT) Technology: The growing popularity of AMT systems, which offer a balance between performance and efficiency, is contributing to market growth.
Stringent Emission Norms and Fuel Economy Standards: Increasingly strict regulations are pushing manufacturers to develop more efficient transmission systems. The European Union's CO2 emission standards require a fleet-wide average of 95g CO2/km for new cars from 2021 onwards, as reported by the European Commission. In the United States, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and EPA have set Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards that require an industry-wide fleet average of approximately 49 mpg for passenger cars and light trucks by 2026.
Key Challenges
High Manufacturing and Maintenance Costs: The advanced transmission systems are more complex, leading to higher production and maintenance costs. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the average hourly wage for automotive service technicians and mechanics was $22.54 in 2020, reflecting the specialized skills required for maintaining complex transmission systems.
Shift Towards Electric Vehicles (EVs): While the transition to EVs is driving innovation in some areas, it's also a restraint for traditional transmission markets as many EVs don't require complex multi-speed transmissions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global EV sales reached 6.6 million in 2021, a 108% increase from 2020. According to Bloomberg NEF, EVs are projected to account for 58% of new passenger car sales globally by 2040, potentially reducing the market for traditional transmissions.
Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain issues have impacted the automotive industry, including transmission manufacturers. The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) reported that in 2021, new car registrations in the EU fell by 2.4% compared to 2020, partly due to supply chain issues affecting component availability. According to IHS Markit, global light vehicle production in 2021 was reduced by 11.3 million units due to semiconductor shortages alone.
Increasing Focus on Lightweight Vehicles: The automotive industry's push for lighter vehicles to improve fuel efficiency can sometimes conflict with the use of complex, heavier transmission systems. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reports that reducing a vehicle's weight by 10% can improve fuel economy by 6-8%.
Key Trends
Growing Demand for Remanufactured Transmissions: The increasing lifespan of vehicles and rising repair costs are driving the demand for remanufactured transmissions. According to the United States International Trade Commission, the U.S. remanufactured automotive parts market, including transmissions, was valued at $7.1 billion in 2021, with a projected CAGR of 3.2% from 2022 to 2032. The European Remanufacturing Network estimates that the automotive remanufacturing sector in Europe is worth €7.4 billion annually, with transmissions being a significant component.
Shift Towards Electrified Transmissions: The automotive industry is increasingly adopting electrified transmissions to meet stricter emission norms and improve fuel efficiency. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that in 2022, electric car sales (including full electric and plug-in hybrids) accounted for 14% of all new car sales globally, up from 9% in 2021.
Integration of Advanced Technologies in Transmissions: Manufacturers are incorporating smart technologies like AI and IoT into transmission systems for improved performance and predictive maintenance.
Continuous Variable Transmission (CVT) Gaining Traction: CVT technology is becoming increasingly popular due to its ability to provide better fuel efficiency and a smoother driving experience. In Japan, one of the leading markets for CVT, about 60% of new passenger vehicles sold in 2020 were equipped with CVT, as reported by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA).
Here is a more detailed regional analysis of the global automotive transmission market:
North America
North America substantially dominates the Global Automotive Transmission Market owing to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). The increasing adoption of EVs in North America is driving demand for specialized EV transmissions and gearboxes.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, EV sales in the United States nearly doubled from 308,000 in 2020 to 608,000 in 2021. The Edison Electric Institute reports that EV sales in the U.S. are projected to exceed 26.4 million units by 2032, accounting for about 10% of the total vehicle fleet on U.S. roads.
Strict regulations are pushing manufacturers to develop more efficient transmission systems. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) have set Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards requiring an industry-wide fleet average of approximately 49 mpg for passenger cars and light trucks by 2026.
According to the EPA, the average fuel economy for new 2021 model-year vehicles in the U.S. reached a record high of 25.7 miles per gallon, driven in part by advancements in transmission technology.
North American consumers show a strong preference for automatic transmissions, driving market growth. The U.S. Department of Energy reports that the market share of manual transmissions in new vehicles has dropped from 35% in 1980 to less than 2% in 2020.
Automotive manufacturers in North America are heavily investing in research and development of advanced transmission systems. The U.S. Department of Energy has invested over $300 million in advanced vehicle technologies research, including transmission systems, through its Vehicle Technologies Office in fiscal year 2021.
According to a report by the American Automotive Policy Council, U.S. automakers invest an average of $1,200 in R&D for every vehicle they produce, with a significant portion dedicated to powertrain and transmission technologies.
Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific is anticipated to witness the fastest growth in the global automotive transmission market during the forecast period owing to the robust automotive manufacturing base in the region.
The strong manufacturing capabilities in the Asia Pacific region provide a significant advantage in the Automotive Transmission Market. According to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA), China alone produced 26.08 million motor vehicles in 2021, accounting for 32.5% of global production.
The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) reports that Japan produced 7.85 million motor vehicles in 2021, with a significant portion equipped with locally manufactured transmissions.
The increasing adoption of EVs in the region is driving demand for specialized EV transmissions. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) reports that NEV (New Energy Vehicle) sales in China reached 6.89 million units in 2022, a 93.4% increase year-on-year. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), electric car sales in China are projected to reach 9 million units in 2032, accounting for 40% of the global EV market.
Increasing disposable income in many Asia Pacific countries is driving automotive sales, consequently boosting the transmission market. The World Bank reports that GDP per capita in East Asia and the Pacific region grew from $10,243 in 2010 to $14,687 in 2021, indicating rising disposable incomes. According to OICA, vehicle sales in the Asia-Oceania region increased from 35.7 million units in 2020 to 37.8 million units in 2021, despite global supply chain challenges.
Supportive government policies and stringent emission norms are driving innovation in transmission technologies. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans to raise the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sales share to 20% of all new car sales by 2025.
India's Ministry of Heavy Industries reports that under the FAME-II scheme, the government has allocated INR 10,000 crore (approximately $1.3 billion) to promote electric and hybrid vehicle adoption, indirectly boosting the market for advanced transmissions.
The Global Automotive Transmission Market is segmented based on Transmission Type, Vehicle Type, Fuel Type, And Geography.
Based on Transmission Type, the Global Automotive Transmission Market is bifurcated into Manual Transmission, Dual Clutch Transmission, Continuously Variable Transmission, Automatic Transmission, and Automated Manual Transmission. The manual transmission segment significantly dominates the global automotive transmission market driven by the increasing demand for fuel-efficient transmission systems. The shift from manual to automated driving systems is creating significant commercial opportunities, particularly in the automated manual transmission (AMT) market, as it offers enhanced efficiency and convenience for drivers.
Based on Vehicle Type, the Global Automotive Transmission Market is bifurcated into Passenger Cars, LCVs, HCVs, and Electric Vehicles. The passenger cars segment significantly dominates the global automotive transmission market driven by road infrastructure and fluctuating fuel prices influence the demand for these vehicles. As the economic outlook improves in developing countries, the demand for passenger cars is expected to rise.
Based on Fuel Type, the Global Automotive Transmission Market is bifurcated into Gasoline and Diesel. The Diesel segment dominates in the global automotive transmission market, driven by advancements in diesel engines with emission control technologies and the introduction of ultra-low sulfur fuel. Diesel engines are more efficient and emit less gas compared to gasoline counterparts. Growing demand for gasoline in countries like the U.S., China, and India is expected to boost the segment's growth.
Based on Geography, the Global Automotive Transmission Market is classified into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Rest of the World. North America substantially dominates the Global Automotive Transmission Market owing to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). The increasing adoption of EVs in North America is driving demand for specialized EV transmissions and gearboxes. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, EV sales in the United States nearly doubled from 308,000 in 2020 to 608,000 in 2021. The Edison Electric Institute reports that EV sales in the U.S. are projected to exceed 26.4 million units by 2032, accounting for about 10% of the total vehicle fleet on U.S. roads.
The "Global Automotive Transmission Market" study report will provide valuable insight with an emphasis on the global market. The major players in the market are Aisin Seiki Company Ltd., GKN PLC, ZF Friedrichshafen AG, Continental AG, Magna International, Inc., Borgwarner, Inc., and Eaton Corporation PLC.
Our market analysis also entails a section solely dedicated to such major players wherein our analysts provide an insight into the financial statements of all the major players, along with product benchmarking and SWOT analysis. The competitive landscape section also includes key development strategies, market share, and market ranking analysis of the above-mentioned players globally.