손실 예방 및 손실 탐지 시장 : 컴퓨터 비전, RFID, AI가 재정의하는 소매업 재편 대책

From Loss Prevention to Loss Detection: How Computer Vision, RFID and AI are Reshaping Retail Shrink

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한글목차

본 보고서에서는 소매업체가 손실 예방 솔루션을 현대화하고 변화하는 구매 습관과 셀프 서비스 솔루션 도입 확대, 레거시 시스템의 과제에 대응하면서 보다 효과적으로 수축을 막으려고 하는지를 상세하게 설명합니다. 그 중심에 있는 것은 고객 경험과 구매 행동의 원활함과 연간 수십억 달러 규모의 손실에 대처하는 상반되는 요소의 균형을 어떻게 취하는가 하는 과제입니다. AI와 컴퓨터 비전 기술의 발전과 소매 분야의 RFID 확대는 차세대 손실 방지 솔루션을 지원하는 중요한 기술 동향으로 다루어지고 있습니다.

이 보고서는 손실 예방에 관한 기술적 및 운영상의 주요 전략적 과제를 분석합니다. VDC는 여러 LP(손실예방) 솔루션 제공업체와의 상세한 인터뷰 외에도 북미 및 유럽 180개 소매업체를 대상으로 설문조사를 실시했습니다. 본 보고서에서는 RFID, AI, 컴퓨터 비전/비디오 모니터링, 전자상품 감시(EAS) 등의 기술이 어떻게 진화·통합되고 있는지, 소매업체가 그들의 투자와 성과에 어떤 기대를 가지고 있는지에 대해 고찰했습니다.

이 보고서에서 다루는 주요 논점 :

• 현재 소매 업계에서의 손실 실태는 어떻게 되어 있는가? 또한 소매업체는 얼마나 손실에 효과적으로 대처할 수 있는가? 소매업체의 관점에서 향후 2년간의 투자 우선 분야는 무엇인가? 의류, 일렉트로닉스, 식료품 등의 부문별로 어떤 차이가 있는가? 손실 방지 솔루션은 고객의 구매 경험을 어떻게 개선합니까?
• 주요 및 신흥 손실 방지 기술에는 어떤 것이 있으며 각각의 강점과 약점은 무엇인가? 이러한 기술은 매장 형태 및 상품 카테고리별로 어떻게 적합합니까? 또한 손실 예방 솔루션은 손실 방지 이외에 어떤 가치를 제공합니까?
• 소매업체의 관점에서 본 향후 2년간의 투자 우선순위는 무엇인가? 소매 부문별로 어떻게 다른가? 소매업체는 어떻게 고객 경험과 손실 방지 기술에 대한 투자를 양립시키는가?
• 셀프 서비스의 보급이 수축에 어떤 영향을 미치는가? 또한 성공적인 소매업체는 셀프 서비스와 손실 방지를 어떻게 통합합니까?
• 재고 가시성 향상은 소매업체의 손실 방지 전략에 어떤 영향을 미치는가? 소매업체는 최근 RFID 투자를 어떻게 활용하여 손실 대책을 강화하고 있는가?

게재 조직 :

주요 요약

북미와 유럽에서는 소매업 전체에서 점포 수축과 매장 내 폭행 발생률이 여전히 높은 수준에 있습니다. 소매업체의 의사결정자들은 이러한 수축을 가장 효과적으로 억제하기 위한 전략을 진화시켜 왔지만 많은 투자가 눈에 띄게 되어 결과적으로 구매 체험을 크게 손상시키는 사태를 초래하고 있습니다. 한편으로 개선이 보이는 것은 사실을 보다 정확하게 파악하는 능력입니다. 예를 들어, 널리 보급되고 있는 RFID 솔루션을 감식 툴로서 활용하고, 손실 패턴을 조사·분석했으며, 내부·외부 요인에 의한 손실을 억제하는 대처가 진행되고 있습니다. 본 조사 보고서는 조직적 범죄 증가, 셀프서비스 솔루션 확대, 소비자 구매 행동 변화 등의 상황에서 오늘날의 소매 업계에서의 손실 실태를 밝히고 소매업체가 접근 방식과 기술 투자 우선순위를 어떻게 변화시키고 있는지 분석했습니다. 그 목적은 모니터링 능력 강화, 고객 구매 경험 마찰 해소, 최종 수축 감소입니다.

VDC의 조사에 따르면 2024년 소매업체의 평균 수축률(매출비)은 2%였으며, 특히 편의점/약점 및 식료품·슈퍼마켓업태에서 높은 수준이었습니다. 그러나 2025년에는 평균 1.7%까지 대폭 하락할 전망을 보여주고 있습니다. 미국의 2024년 소매 매출이 약 5조 2,500억 달러라는 점을 감안하면, 이 감소는 대략 158억 달러의 이익 개선에 해당합니다. 2025년 예산은 평균 6.9% 증가했습니다. 이러한 개선은 손실방지기술에 대한 투자 확대의 효과일 가능성이 높지만, 그뿐만 아니라 손실방지기술 스택의 진화, 구매행동의 변화에 대한 대응, 정책 전환 등 여러 요인이 기여하고 있는 것으로 예측됩니다.

AI와 컴퓨터 비전의 혁신, 성숙과 대규모 도입이 진행됨에 따라 손실 방지 기술 스택이 재정의되고 있습니다. EAS(전자상품 감시)와 영상시스템의 통합도 일반적으로 되고 있어, 알람을 상품이나 점포내의 위치 정보와 연계시킴으로써 사안 해결까지의 시간을 단축하고 있습니다. 또한 의류와 일용품과 같은 분야에서 RFID의 도입 확대는 새로운 용도를 열고 있습니다. 구체적으로는 재고의 진정한 상태(ground truth)를 실시간으로 파악하기 위한 데이터 소스로서, 그리고 손실 패턴의 분석 툴로서의 활용이 진행되고 있습니다. 실제로 10개사 중 9개 이상의 소매업체가 RFID 등에 의한 실시간 재고의 가시화는 손실 방지 전략을 지원하는데 매우 중요하거나 어느 정도 중요하다고 응답하고 있습니다.

목차

이그제큐티브

요약 키

조사 결과

손실 방지 진화

• 소매업체가 직면하는 과제
  • 소매업체의 기술 개발
  • 손실과 재고의 실시간 시각화
  • 매매 손실 방지의 진화

현재 소매 환경에서의 손실 방지

• 현재의 소매업체의 기술과 운용의 발전
• 손실 예방 및 손실 탐지
• 소매업체에게 중요한 구성 요소로서의 손실 검출
• 손실 전략 손실 정보 및 회복
• 손실 전략
• 소매업체가 직면하는 과제

셀프 서비스가 손실 방지에 미치는 영향

• SCO 도입 및 손실
• SCO 수축에 대한 소매업체의 대책
• SCO의 LP에 영향을 미치는 기술적 제한

손실 방지 기술의 상황

• 비디오와 AI 기반의 손실 방지 솔루션
• RFID 기반 손실 방지 솔루션
  • 전자제품으로서의 RFID
  • 감시 RFID와 셀프 체크아웃
  • RFID 및 RF 태그 옵션
  • RFID와 반품 관리
  • 의류 및 기타 소매 분야용 RFID
  • 의류 이외의 소매업용 RFID 및 RF
• 추가 LP 기술
  • 얼굴인식
  • 디지마크
• LP 시스템 설계
  • 고객을 위한 디자인
  • 개입을 위한 체험 디자인
  • 클라우드와 엣지 처리
  • 소프트웨어

경쟁 구도· 벤더 프로파일 :

보고서 부록

Excel 데이터 세트/VDC를 통한 소매업체 조사

SHW

영문 목차

영문목차

Inside This Report

This report details how retailers are modernizing their loss prevention solutions to more effectively prevent shrink while facing shifting shopping habits, greater adoption of self-service solutions and ongoing challenges with legacy solutions. At the heart of this is finding balance between customer experience and the shopping journey and the need to counter increasing levels of loss that cost retailers billions of dollars in revenue each year. Advances in AI and computer vision technologies and the expanding footprint of RFID in retail are among the key technology trends researched to support next-generation loss prevention solutions.

This in-depth report analyzes key strategic issues, both technological and operational, regarding loss prevention. VDC's research entailed detailed discussions with dozens of LP solution providers, plus a dedicated survey fielded among loss prevention technology decision makers across 180 retailers in North America and Europe. The report discusses ways in which RFID, artificial intelligence, computer vision / video monitoring, electronic article surveillance, and more technologies are advancing and being integrated, and retailers' expectations for investments and results.

What Questions are Addressed?

• What is the state of loss in retail today and how effective are retailers at addressing loss? From the retailer's perspective, what will their investment priorities be in the next two years? How does this differ by retail segment, such as apparel versus electronics versus grocery? In what ways are loss prevention solutions improving customers' shopping experiences?
• What are the leading and emerging loss prevention technologies and the strengths and weaknesses of each? How do these technologies align by store format and merchandise? What do loss prevention solutions do beyond loss prevention?
• From the retailer's perspective, what will their investment priorities be in the next two years? How does this differ by retail segment? How are retailers balancing customer experiences with loss prevention technology investments?
• What is the impact of self-service on shrink and how are successful retailers integrating loss with self- service solutions?
• How are improvements to inventory visibility impacting retailer loss prevention strategies and how are retailers leveraging recent RFID investments to better address loss?

Who Should Read this Report?

• Types of companies: Loss Prevention solution providers, POS hardware and software vendors, retail systems integrators, top tier retailers, retail industry trade associations and standard setters.
• Product Management, Directors of Strategy and Research, Marketing Communications professionals
• Corporate development and merger and acquisition professionals seeking a comprehensive understanding of the landscape of loss prevention
• Strategic Aliance and Channel Development managers

Organizations Covered in this Report:

Executive Summary

Retail shrink and in-store violence levels remain elevated across most store formats throughout North America and Europe. While retail decision maker strategies on how to best address shrink have evolved, many investments have backfired and significantly eroded the shopper experience. What has improved is retailers' ability to more accurately measure events; for example, by leveraging increasingly ubiquitous RFID solutions as a forensics tool to investigate patterns and deter internal and external loss. This research report is designed to measure the state of loss in retail today in the wake of heightened organized crime, expansive self-service solution deployment and shifting shopping habits and assess how retailers are evolving their approach and technology investment priorities to enhance monitoring capabilities, eliminate shopper friction while ultimately reducing shrink. Backed by a dedicated survey conducted among retail loss prevention decision makers across multiple retail categories and in-depth interviews with leading and emerging solution providers, the report addresses the key factors shaping this market moving forward.

According to VDC's research, in 2024 retailers incurred an average of 2% of shrink (as measured as a percentage of retail sales) with convenience/pharmacies and grocery/supermarket the leading retail segments. For 2025, however, retailers are projecting a substantial drop in shrink with average anticipated losses of 1.7%. Considering average US retail sales of $5.25 trillion in 2024, this drop represents a $15.8 billion benefit to retailers. While this is potentially a byproduct of increased loss prevention technology investments - 2025 budgets increased by an average of 6.9% - other contributing factors include the evolving loss prevention technology stack, retailers adapting to changes to shopping habits and policy shifts.

AI and computer vision innovation and advances with more mature solutions and those in the process of scaling are redefining the loss prevention technology stack. EAS and video integrations are becoming more commonplace, tying alarms to product and location to accelerate case resolution. In addition, RFID's scaling footprint in segments like apparel and general merchandise is opening the door to new applications such as its use to provide the definitive inventory ground truth and its utility to investigate patterns. In fact, over nine in ten retailers agreed that real-time inventory visibility (provided by solutions like RFID) was extremely or somewhat important to support loss prevention strategies.

Key Findings:

• Retailers address self-service vulnerability and retrench self-checkout policies. With growing labor cost and availability challenges, retailers are increasingly turning to self-service solutions to support customers. Over 60% of retail research respondents acknowledge that they currently have or plan to implement self-service solutions. However, just over 30% of retailers claim that self-service solutions (such as self-checkout) have had a significant or severe impact on shrink levels. Leading issues with self-checkout solutions include label switching (24.5%) and hiding one item behind another (23.8%). To address self-checkout impacted shrink, retailers are turning to computer vision and AI solutions to better detect missed scans and to visually confirm item identity. Leading retailers are pairing policy (item limits) with vision-assisted exception handling.
• Returns fraud is a major challenge for retailers and in many ways the new battlefield. Approximately 15% of returns are fraudulent (with online returns a greater issue). Thus, omni-channel returns and BORIS/BOPIS workflows becoming an increasingly critical loss prevention consideration.
• Labor shortages accelerating self-service investments; however, limiting retailer loss prevention goals. Almost one in four retailers agree that labor shortages have had a significant and/or a severe impact preventing loss prevention. In fact, retailers cite employee training and awareness programs and customer engagement tactics as among the most effective loss prevention measures. To counter labor challenges, retailers have turned to increased loss prevention technology investments and re- focusing staff at higher rick times and locations.
• Leading loss contributors are varied, requiring a multi-faceted approach by retailers to address. The top three contributors to inventory shrink include administrative/process errors (23.0%), opportunistic shoplifting (21.7%) and employee theft (20.4%). It is noteworthy that organized retail crime is not a "top three" rated contributor.
• RFID's retail value proposition continues to evolve and is becoming the source of truth supporting monitoring and loss detection solutions. Inventory visibility and accuracy remain a key challenge for retailers with more than three in ten retailers claiming moderately accurate, slightly accurate or inaccurate inventory visibility. RFID has become the de facto technology retailers turn to for greater (real time) in-store inventory visibility and over nine in ten agree that there is strong value integrating RFID inventory management solutions with loss prevention platforms.

Table of Contents

Executive

Summary Key

Findings

The Evolution of Loss Prevention

• Challenges Faced by Retailers
  • Retailers' Technology Developments
  • Real-Time Visibility of Losses and Inventory
  • The Evolution of Buying and Selling Loss Prevention

Loss Prevention in the Current Retail Environment

• Current Retailer Technology and Operational Developments
• Loss Prevention versus Loss Detection
• Loss Detection as a Critical Component of Retailers'
• Loss Strategies Loss Intelligence and Recovery
• Loss Strategies
• Challenges Faced by Retailers

The Impact of Self-Service on Loss Prevention

• SCO Implementation and Loss
• Retailers' Countermeasures to SCO Shrink
• Technical Limitations Impacting LP for SCO

The Current Landscape of Loss Prevention Technologies

• Video- and Artificial Intelligence-Based Loss Prevention Solutions
• RFID-Based Loss Prevention Solutions
  • RFID as Electronic Article
  • Surveillance RFID and Self-Checkout
  • RFID and RF Tag Options
  • RFID and Returns Management
  • RFID for Apparel and Other Retail Segments
  • RFID and RF for Retail Segments other than Apparel
• Additional LP Technologies
  • Facial recognition
  • Digimarc
• LP System Design
  • Design for Customer
  • Experience Design for Intervention
  • Cloud versus Edge Processing
  • Software

Competitive Landscape and Vendor Profiles:

Report Exhibits

• Exhibit 1: The Cost of Loss: Loss as a Percent of Retail Sales
• Exhibit 2: Retailer Investment Priorities for Loss Prevention
• Exhibit 3: How Will Retailers Change Their Loss Prevention Strategies?
• Exhibit 4: The Importance of Real-time Inventory Visibility
• Exhibit 5: Current Inventory Visibility
• Exhibit 6: Largest Sources of Loss
• Exhibit 7: The Impact of Labor Shortages on Loss Prevention
• Exhibit 8: 2024 Budget Allocations for Loss Prevention Technologies
• Exhibit 9: 2025 Changes to Budget Allocations for Loss Prevention
• Exhibit 10: RFID Reader Form Factors and Locations
• Exhibit 11: Self-Checkout Implementation and Loss
• Exhibit 12: Current Countermeasures to SCO Shrink
• Exhibit 13: Effectiveness of Loss Prevention Measures
• Exhibit 14: Retailer Reasons for Adopting RFID
• Exhibit 15: The Value of Integrating RFID with Loss Prevention
• Exhibit 16: The Benefits of Integrating RFID with Loss Prevention Solutions
• Exhibit 17: Integration of RFID with Electronic Article Surveillance
• Exhibit 18: The Impact of Loss Prevention on Customers' Experiences

Excel Dataset Exhibits / VDC Survey of Retailers

Responses to the following survey questions, cross-tabulated by 7 retail segments (apparel, convenience, department, electronics, grocery, general merchandise and specialty:

• 1. On a scale of 1 (Not a priority) to 5 (Critical priority), how would you rate the priority of investing in each of the following loss prevention technologies for your organization in the next 1-2 years?
• 2. Which of the following loss prevention solutions have you already implemented, and which do you plan to implement in your stores?
• 3. How effective have the following loss prevention measures been for your organization in reducing theft and shrink? (Rate each on a 5-point scale: 1 = Not effective, 5 = Very effective, or mark "Not used" if not applicable.)
• 4. How effective is your organization at addressing retail loss/shrink?
• 5. Looking ahead, do you anticipate making any significant changes to your loss prevention strategy in the next 1-2 years? (multiselect)
• 6. To what extent have labor shortages or staffing constraints affected your ability to prevent losses in stores?
• 7. Which approaches are you using to maintain loss prevention coverage despite staffing shortages? (multiselect)
• 8. What impact does your organization's LP strategy have on customer experience/convenience?
• 9. Approximately what percent of retail inventory was lost to shrink in 2024 (measured as a percent of retail sales)?
• 10. Approximately what percent of retail inventory do you estimate will be lost to shrink in 2025 (measured as a percent of retail sales)?
• 11. Which of the following do you perceive as the largest contributors to shrink (losses) in your organization over the past year? (multiselect)
• 12. Considering your organization's overall retail technology budget, what share was attributed to loss prevention technology investments in 2024?
• 13. Relative to 2024, is your organization's LP budget increasing, decreasing or staying the same in 2025?
• 14. Does your organization currently support self-checkout solutions (such as SCO lanes, personal shopping devices, smart carts, etc.)?
• 15. How have self-checkout solutions affected your store's shrink levels and theft incidents?
• 16. What specific loss prevention challenges have you encountered with self-checkout or other self-service models? (multiselect)
• 17. How is your organization addressing self-checkout loss/shrink issues? (multiselect)
• 18. How important is real-time inventory visibility and accuracy to support your LP strategies?
• 19. How would you describe your organization's current in-store inventory visibility?
• 20. Does your organization currently use item-level RFID solutions to support greater in-store inventory visibility?
• 21. What are your organization's primary RFID investment drivers? (multiselect)
• 22. Do you see value in integrating RFID inventory management solutions with LP platforms to provide greater visibility into shrink and theft events?
• 23. Is your organization currently leveraging RFID investments/solutions to support LP strategies?
• 24. How/where is RFID tagged merchandise currently being read and how do you plan to read RFID tagged merchandise currently? (multiselect)
• 25. How/where is RFID tagged merchandise currently being read and how do you plan to read RFID tagged merchandise over the next 24 months? (multiselect)
• 26. What are the leading benefits of combining RFID-enabled inventory visibility with LP solutions? (multiselect)
• 27. What are your views on RFID relative to EAS (electronic article surveillance) solutions? (multiselect)

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