2023년 조명 시장 수요는 많은 요인들로부터 기대되는 회복에 이르지 못했습니다. 2023년 LED 조명 시장 규모는 585억 달러(전년 대비 5% 감소)로 다시 하향 조정되었습니다. 2024년에는 약 57억 8,800만개의 LED 램프 및 조명 기구가 수명에 도달하여 단계적으로 사용되지 않을 것입니다. 이로 인해 LED 조명 시장의 감소 경향이 역전되고 시장 규모는 609억 달러(전년 대비 4% 증가)에 이를 것으로 예상됩니다.
조명 제조업체는 당분간 업계의 과제를 받아 적극적인 확대 계획을 수정하여 식물 공장 부문에 대한 투자 의욕을 감퇴시키고 있습니다. 이러한 보수적인 자세가 원예용 LED 조명의 보급 과정을 예상보다 지연시키는 것은 틀림없습니다. 한편, 중국 제조업체가 원예용 조명의 중류에서 업스트림 공급망에 진입하기 시작하면 조명 공급의 중요한 장벽인 광학식 전문 지식이 더욱 넓어집니다. 이것은 업계 공급망 내에서 경쟁을 격화시키고 가격 인하를 가속화합니다. 그러나 최종 시장 원예용 조명 제품의 가격과 수요는 일반 조명만큼 유연하지 않기 때문에 가격 인하로 상당한 수요 증가를 자극하는 것은 어렵습니다. 또한 가격 하락은 이 업계의 기대 시장 가치를 일시적으로 낮춥니다.
2023년 조명 제조업체의 수익 상위 5개사는 Signify, Acuity Brands, Panasonic, LEDVANCE(MLS Lighting 인수), Zumtobel이었습니다. 2023년 조명 수요는 계속 침체되었으며 주요 20개 기업의 총 수입은 4.5% 감소했습니다. 수출이 예년보다 저조했기 때문에 중국 업체들은 일년 내내 국내 시장에 주력하고 있습니다. 스마트 조광, 조색, 발광 효율의 향상은 구미 기업의 대부분이 신제품으로 강조하고 있는 주요 기능입니다. '천장용 전구가 없는 가정용 조명'이라는 개념이 점점 일반화되고 있는 것에 따라, 각사는 고품질의 다운라이트, 스포트라이트, 스트립라이트의 개발에 주력하고 있습니다.
다운스트림 공정 부문의 최종 제품 제조업체에 비해 LED 조명 시장은 2023년 가격 인하 압력이 증가했으며, 2021년에는 생산 능력이 추가되어 업계가 다시 출시되었습니다. 2023년 최종 시장 수요는 바람직한 회복에 이르지 못하고 오히려 축소되어 LED 조명 분야의 수급 불균형을 악화시켰습니다. TrendForce는 2023년 일반 조명, 건축 조명, 농업용 LED 조명 시장 규모가 2023년에는 42억 3,600만 달러(전년 대비 17% 감소)로 떨어진 것으로 평가했습니다.
본 보고서에서는 세계의 LED 조명 시장에 대해 분석하여 LED 조명 시장 전체 시장 규모 추이 및 예측, 제품별 및 전력별, 지역별 상세 동향, 원예용 및 농업용 LED 조명 시장 동향, 주요 기업 순위 및 실적, 전략, LED 조명 패키지 시장 동향 등의 정보를 전해드립니다.
According to TrendForce's latest market research report "TrendForce 2024 Global LED Lighting Market Analysis-1H24", the lighting market demand in 2023 did not experience the expected rebound due to numerous factors. TrendForce once again revised down the LED lighting market value for 2023 to USD 58.5 billion (-5% YoY). In 2024, about 5.788 billion LED lamps and luminaires will reach their service life limits and be phased out, leading to a considerable demand for second-time replacements. This is expected to reverse the declining trend in the LED lighting market, and the market value will reach USD 60.9 billion (+4% YoY).
On the one hand, lighting manufacturers have modified their aggressive expansion plans in response to the immediate industry challenges, which have in fact decreased the desire to invest in the plant factory sector. This conservative posture will undoubtedly slow down the penetration process of LED horticultural lighting compared to expectations. On the other hand, as Chinese manufacturers begin to enter the mid-to-upstream supply chain of horticultural lighting, optical formula expertise, the key barrier to lighting supply, becomes more widespread. This intensifies competition within the industry chain and accelerates price reductions. However, the prices and demand for end-market horticultural lighting products are not as flexible as those for general lighting, making it difficult to stimulate significant demand growth through price reduction. The decrease in prices will also temporarily lower the expected market value for this industry.
Governments around the world are increasing policy support to promote the development of smart agriculture for local food security concerns. For example, Israel, Dubai, and North Africa continue to invest in vertical farms. In 2023, China imported 160 million tons of grain, an increase of 11.7% compared to the previous year. The Chinese government will increase agricultural investments in the next five years, which is beneficial to the agricultural lighting market. Additionally, the acceleration of urbanization, the decrease in per capita arable land, the aging population, and a sharp decline in the number of newborns are significant social issues that drive breakthroughs and development in agricultural technology. In 2024, the agricultural lighting industry will combine AI, sensors, drones, and other technologies to further promote the maturity of smart agriculture. By 2025, some regions will achieve large-scale smart agriculture monitoring and management. This will bring new opportunities to the agricultural lighting market, including horticultural lighting, livestock lighting, aquaculture lighting, fishery lighting, and microalgae growth. LED agricultural lighting technology can not only improve quality and growth speed but also prevent pests and diseases to increase yield. With an improved standard of living, humans seek higher levels of spiritual and material enjoyment, leading to a segmented market for agricultural lighting that offers diverse flavors, high-tech, and a transparent cultivation process.
According to the data compiled by TrendForce, the top five lighting manufacturers by revenue for 2023 were Signify, Acuity Brands, Panasonic, LEDVANCE (acquired by MLS Lighting), and Zumtobel. The lighting demand for 2023 remained sluggish, with a 4.5% slump in total revenue posted by the top twenty players. As export performance was weaker than previous years, Chinese manufacturers turned to focus on the domestic market throughout the year. Smart dimming and color tuning as well as light efficacy improvement are major features emphasized by most European and US businesses for new products. Following the increasingly popular concept of "household lighting without overhead lights", companies have been striving to develop high-quality downlights, spotlights, and strip lights.
In 2023, the entire lighting industry suffered lower profits due to energy crisis, frequent supply chain woes, and high inventory levels, all of which hampered the progress of inventory depletion.
Regarding industry chain development, integration will be a dominant trend for leading lighting firms in the next three years, with economies of scale being the main tool for profitability. Enterprises without core technology or prominent self-owned brands are expected to be taken over or be eliminated. The challenging global economic conditions and political uncertainty have prompted governments worldwide to cut infrastructure spending. As 2024 will be a crucial year for governments to validate climate efforts, they are likely to allocate higher budget for fixture replacement, giving rise to the LED lighting replacement market.
Compared to final product manufacturers in the downstream segment, those producing lighting LED market faced increased pressure on price reductions in 2023, with the production capacity added in 2021-where the industry returned-being released. The end-market demand for 2023 did not recover desirably and even shrank, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance within the lighting LED sector. TrendForce estimated the market value of LEDs for general, architectural, and agricultural lighting to slump to USD 4.236 billion in 2023 (-17% YoY).
Despite the slower decline in demand for 2023, the long-term unprofitability prompted some companies to withdraw from the market, including multinational players intending to reduce losses. In the long run, the 2835/3030 LED will be the top two components for lighting, while other products could barely threaten their dominance. As miniaturization has never been the focus of lighting LEDs, the 3014/4014 package structures will not become a mainstream. Regardless of the long-term competition between COB and discrete components, the two are clearly differentiated in most applications. A TrendForce survey revealed that the market demand for LED commercial lighting returned in 2023, and that for agricultural (horticultural) lighting also recovered starting in 3Q23. However, the overall economic downturn still led to an increase in the market shares of low-end lighting LEDs. TrendForce estimated the global lighting LED market size (General Lighting) will reach USD 3.686 billion in 2024.