Stratistics MRC에 따르면 세계의 베이스 오일 시장은 2024년에 370억 6,000만 달러를 차지하고, 2030년에는 복합 연간 성장률(CAGR) 6.6%로 성장하여 543억 8,000만 달러에 이를 것으로 예측됩니다.
베이스 오일은 윤활유의 주성분으로, 원유 또는 화학 합성으로부터 얻어집니다. 윤활유의 성능에 크게 영향을 미칩니다. 첨가제는 내마모성과 극압성과 같은 특정 특성을 높이기 위해 베이스 오일에 혼합되는 경우가 많습니다.
미국 에너지 정보국(EIA)에 따르면 2022년 미국의 석유 소비량은 하루 평균 약 2,028만 배럴이었습니다.
자동차업계 수요 증가
세계 자동차 수요 증가는 엔진 오일과 변속기 오일의 중요한 구성 요소 인베이스 오일의 필요성을 높이고 있습니다. 오일 수요를 직접 지원 자동차의 효율 향상과 배출 가스 삭감을 목적으로 한 고성능 윤활유로의 시프트가 시장의 성장을 더욱 가속화하고 있습니다. 증가에 따라 앞으로도 계속 될 것으로 예상됩니다.
원유 가격 변동
원유는 주요 원료이기 때문에 원유 가격의 변동은 기본 오일의 생산 비용에 큰 영향을 미칩니다. 학적인 긴장과 공급망의 혼란이 이러한 변동을 악화시키는 일도 많아, 제조업체나 소비자가 장기적인 구입 계획을 세우는 것을 곤란하게 하고 있습니다. 성능 오일의 생산과 수요 모두에 영향을 미칩니다.
고성능 오일 수요
고성능 윤활유에 대한 요구 증가는 특히 산업용 및 자동차용 용도에서 베이스 오일 시장에 큰 기회를 가져왔습니다. 최신의 기계와 자동차에 점점 더 요구되고 있습니다. 기름 채용을 뒷받침하고 있습니다.
합성유와의 경쟁 격화
합성유와 바이오베이스유에 대한 기호의 높아짐은 기존의 기유 시장에 위협을 주고 있습니다. 장점이 있기 때문에 많은 응용 분야에서 선호되고 있습니다. 소비자와 산업계가 지속 가능하고 고효율 솔루션으로 전환함에 따라 합성 대체 오일의 채택이 증가하고 기존 기유의 성장 가능성이 제한 될 것으로 예상됩니다. 됩니다.
COVID-19의 대유행은 가동 중단 중 산업 및 자동차 활동의 감소로 인해 기유 수요의 상당한 감소를 일으켰습니다. 그러나 경제가 회복되고 산업이 운영을 재개함에 따라 자동차 및 산업 부문의 부활에 견인되어 기유 수요가 회복 될 것으로 예상됩니다.
예측 기간 동안 엔진 오일 부문이 최대가 될 전망
예측 기간 동안 엔진 윤활유에 베이스 오일이 널리 사용되기 때문에 엔진 오일 분야가 시장 점유율을 독점할 것으로 예상됩니다. 하는 데 중요한 역할을합니다. 세계 자동차 보유 대수 증가와 고품질의 윤활유를 필요로 하는 엔진 기술의 진보가 함께 이 분야는 계속 확대되고 있습니다. 이 부문의 우위를 유지합니다.
금속가공, 야금분야는 예측기간 중에 가장 높은 복합 연간 성장률(CAGR)이 예상됩니다.
예측 기간 동안 금속 가공 및 야금 분야는 산업용 분야에서 특수 윤활유 수요가 증가함에 따라 가장 높은 성장률을 보일 것으로 예상됩니다. 정확도 향상 특히 신흥 시장에서의 제조업과 건설업의 확대는 금속가공에 있어서 고품질 기유의 채용을 촉진하고 있습니다. 되었습니다.
예측 기간 동안 아시아태평양이 시장 점유율을 독점할 것으로 예상됩니다. 태평양 지역의 인구 증가, 가처분 소득 증가, 제조 활동의 확대는 윤활유와 기유의 소비를 촉진하고 있습니다. 유시장에서의 주도권을 확고한 것으로 하고 있습니다.
예측 기간 동안 아시아태평양은 가장 높은 복합 연간 성장률(CAGR)을 나타낼 것으로 예상됩니다. 고성능 윤활유에 니 첨단 기계 및 자동차 도입이 증가함에 따라이 지역의 기유 수요가 더욱 가속화되고 있습니다. 매우 중요한 시장인 것에 변함이 없습니다.
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Base Oil Market is accounted for $37.06 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $54.38 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 6.6% during the forecast period. Base oil is the primary component of lubricants, derived from crude oil or chemical synthesis. It provides the foundation for engine oils, transmission fluids, and industrial lubricants. The type and quality of base oil significantly influence the lubricant's performance, including viscosity, oxidation resistance, and friction. Additives are often mixed with base oil to enhance specific properties like wear protection or extreme-pressure resistance.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2022, U.S. petroleum consumption averaged approximately 20.28 million barrels per day.
Increasing automotive industry demand
The increasing demand for vehicles globally is driving the need for base oils, as they are crucial components in engine and transmission oils. Growth in the automotive sector, especially in emerging economies, is bolstering lubricant consumption, which directly supports base oil demand. The shift toward high-performance lubricants to improve vehicle efficiency and reduce emissions further amplifies the market's growth. This trend is expected to sustain, driven by advancements in automotive technology and the growing use of premium lubricants in vehicles.
Fluctuating crude oil prices
Fluctuating crude oil prices significantly impact the production cost of base oils, as crude oil is the primary raw material. These price variances create challenges for manufacturers in maintaining stable pricing and profit margins. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions often exacerbate these fluctuations, making it difficult for manufacturers and consumers to plan long-term purchases. This uncertainty in raw material pricing acts as a major restraint for the market, affecting both production and demand for high-performance oils.
Demand for high-performance oils
The rising need for high-performance lubricants, particularly in industrial and automotive applications, presents a significant opportunity for the base oil market. High-performance oils offer superior thermal stability, longer life, and enhanced efficiency, which are increasingly demanded by modern machinery and vehicles. This trend is supported by stricter environmental regulations and a focus on reducing carbon footprints, encouraging the adoption of advanced lubricants formulated with high-quality base oils.
Rising competition from synthetic oils
The growing preference for synthetic and bio-based oils poses a threat to the traditional base oil market. Synthetic oils offer better performance in extreme temperatures, enhanced durability, and environmental benefits, making them a preferred choice in many applications. As consumers and industries move toward sustainable and high-efficiency solutions, the increasing adoption of synthetic alternatives is expected to limit the growth potential for conventional base oils.
Covid-19 pandemic caused a significant decline in base oil demand due to reduced industrial and automotive activities during lockdowns. Supply chain disruptions and decreased mobility further impacted the market. However, as economies recover and industries resume operations, the demand for base oils is expected to rebound, driven by the resurgence in the automotive and industrial sectors.
The engine oils segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
Over the forecasted timeframe, the engine oils segment is anticipated to dominate the market share due to the widespread use of base oils in engine lubricants. Engine oils play a critical role in maintaining vehicle performance and protecting engine components from wear and tear. The increasing global vehicle fleet, coupled with advancements in engine technologies that demand high-quality lubricants, continues to boost this segment. Furthermore, stringent emission norms drive the use of premium-grade engine oils, sustaining the dominance of this segment.
The metal processing & metallurgy segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the metal processing & metallurgy segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate due to the rising demand for specialized lubricants in industrial applications. Base oils used in metalworking fluids enhance the efficiency and precision of machining processes. The expansion of manufacturing and construction industries, particularly in emerging markets, is driving the adoption of high-quality base oils in metal processing. This growth is further supported by advancements in metallurgy requiring more sophisticated lubrication solutions.
During the estimation period, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to dominate the market share. The region's dominance is attributed to its thriving automotive and industrial sectors, particularly in countries like China, India, and Japan. Asia Pacific's growing population, increasing disposable incomes, and expanding manufacturing activities are driving the consumption of lubricants and base oils. Additionally, the region's position as a manufacturing hub enhances its demand for industrial lubricants, solidifying its leadership in the global base oil market.
During the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is also anticipated to register the highest CAGR. Rapid industrialization, urbanization, and infrastructure development in emerging economies like India and Southeast Asian nations are key contributors to this growth. The increasing adoption of advanced machinery and vehicles, along with the rising need for high-performance lubricants, further accelerates the demand for base oils in this region. As economic activities continue to grow, Asia Pacific remains a pivotal market for base oil consumption.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Base Oil Market include Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, Aramco, Sinopec, Shell PLC, PetroChina Company Limited, SK Innovation Co., Ltd., TotalEnergies SE, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), LUKOIL, Nynas AB, GS Caltex Corporation, Petronas Lubricants International, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Phillips 66 Company, Repsol S.A., Neste Oyj, and Sepahan Oil Company.
In October 2024, Exxon Mobil Corporation has executed the largest offshore carbon dioxide (CO2) storage lease in the U.S. with the Texas General Land Office (GLO). The over 271,000-acre site complements the onshore CO2 storage portfolio ExxonMobil is developing, and further solidifies the U.S. Gulf Coast as a carbon capture and storage (CCS) leader.
In June 2024, TransLanka and Ariyadasa, the two signature service stations of Sinopec Energy Lanka (Private) Limited, officially started operation in Sri Lanka. Featured with Sri Lankan languages and elements, streamlined canopy and brand-new fueling island design, the stations offer local customers a refreshing shopping experience with new brands such as Changbaishan mineral water. In the future, Sinopec will explore value-added services such as fuel storage and transportation, non-fuel products, and EV charging, providing consumers with a premium refueling experience.
In March 2024, Chevron Corporation announced that its 50 percent owned affiliate Tengizchevroil LLP (TCO) has safely commenced operations at its Wellhead Pressure Management Project (WPMP) at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan.