중국의 승용차용 고속도로/도시 NOA 시장(2024년)
China Passenger Car Highway & Urban NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) Research Report, 2024
상품코드 : 1613805
리서치사 : ResearchInChina
발행일 : 2024년 10월
페이지 정보 : 영문 502 Pages
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한글목차

최근 수년간 자율주행 기술의 발전 경로가 점차 명확해지면서 산업은 L2에서 L2.5/L2.9, 나아가 L3로 가속화하고 있습니다. 이 과정에서 고속도로 NOA의 보급과 도시 NOA의 급속한 발전은 업계 전반의 공감대를 형성하고 있으며, 2023년 하반기 이후 도시 NOA 시장 경쟁은 점점 더 치열해지고 있습니다. 주요 OEM은 도시 NOA 기술 탑재를 가속화하고 점차 개발 계획을 공개하고 있으며, 2023년 3분기 이후 승용차 NOA의 개발은 후반기에 접어들었습니다. 많은 자동차 제조업체들이 엔드 투 엔드 기반 모델과 맵 프리 솔루션을 적극적으로 개발하고 활용하여 국가의 지능형 운전 개발을 새로운 단계로 끌어 올리고 있습니다.

현재 승용차 NOA는 다음과 같은 발전 추세에 직면해 있습니다.

동향1: 고속도로 NOA와 도시 NOA의 보급률 지속 상승

2019년 테슬라가 중국에 처음으로 고속도로 NOA를 도입한 이후 2022년 급속히 보급되어 현재 많은 국내 독립 브랜드와 합작 브랜드에 적용되고 있으며, 2023년 말까지 L2.5 이상 국산 ADAS 승용차 판매량은 148만 4,000대에 달하고, 보급률은 7.1%, 매출은 전년 대비 78.3% 증가했습니다.

2024년 상반기 말까지 L2.5 이상 국산 ADAS 승용차 신차 판매량은 106만대, 보급률은 11%이며, 이 중 고속도로 NOA는 32만 8,000대, 보급률은 3.4%(고속도로 NOA와 도시 NOA 기능을 겸비한 모델 제외)입니다. 도시 NOA 모델은 73만 2,000대, 보급률은 7.6%입니다.

동향2: 2023-2024년, 도시 NOA는 군비경쟁에 돌입할 것입니다.

Tesla, NIO/Xpeng Motors/Li Auto, Huawei System 등 OEM을 필두로 국내 주요 OEM과 솔루션 프로바이더는 모두 도시 NOA를 위해 움직이고 있으며, 일부는 2023년부터 자동차에 탑재되기 시작했습니다. -2023-2024년, 도시형 NOA는 군비경쟁에 돌입하여 많은 OEM이 L2.9 양산에 성공했습니다.

동향3: 2023년 이후 합작 OEM은 고속도로 NOA의 후속 조치를 가속화할 것입니다.

OEM 유형으로 볼 때, 2022년 고속도로 NOA 기업은 현지 시장에 집중하고 외국 자본은 진입하지 않았고, 2023년 이후 합작 OEM은 고속도로 NOA의 후속 조치를 가속화하기 시작했으며, 2024년 상반기까지 합작 OEM 고속도로 NOA 모델의 중국 판매량은 5만 4,000대에 달했습니다. 2022-2024년 상반기까지 독립 OEM 고속도로 NOA 모델의 판매량과 보급률은 계속 증가하여 2023년 말까지 판매량은 전년 대비 124.5% 증가한 45만 4,000대, 보급률은 전년 대비 1.2% 증가한 2.2%에 달했습니다. 2024년 상반기 판매량은 27만 5,000대, 보급률은 2.8%에 달했습니다.

2023년 합작 브랜드 도시 NOA 판매량은 60만 4,000대, 보급률은 5.9%로 전년 대비 1.8% 상승했고, 독립 브랜드 차량 판매량은 42만 3,000대, 보급률은 3.9%로 전년 대비 1.8% 상승했습니다. 2024년 상반기 독립 브랜드 도시형 NOA 모델의 보급률은 2023년 말 3.9%에서 2024년 상반기 8.3%로 상승했습니다. 이 추세는 지능형 운전 분야에서 많은 독립 브랜드가 빠르게 배치되고 L2.9 ADAS 제품에 대한 국내 소비자의 수용이 증가하고 있음을 보여줍니다.

동향 4: L2.9와 L2.5는 중저가 시장 침투를 가속화하고, 기술 평등 시대가 조용히 다가오고 있습니다.

가격 측면에서 보면 20-30만 위안 모델에서 도시 NOA 기능이 가장 크게 성장하고 있으며, 2024년 상반기에는 특히 '20-25만 위안' 시장 부문에서 도시 NOA 탑재량이 가장 크게 증가하여 기술 평등 시대가 조용히 도래했습니다. 이러한 추세는 2024년 ADAS 기술이 중저가 시장으로의 침투를 가속화하고 점차 대중화되어 미래의 일상적인 패밀리카의 표준 구성이 될 것임을 보여줍니다.

중국의 승용차용 고속도로/도시 NOA 시장에 대해 조사분석했으며, 판매와 보급률 데이터나, 국내외 공급업체 NOA 프로그램에 관한 정보를 제공하고 있습니다.

목차

제1장 중국의 NOA 대응 승용차 모델 판매와 솔루션

제2장 승용차용 NOA 시장 동향과 인사이트

제3장 승용차용 NOA 솔루션과 OEM의 이용

제4장 국내 공급업체 승용차용 NOA 프로그램

제5장 국외 공급업체 승용차용 NOA 프로그램

KSA
영문 목차

영문목차

NOA industry research: seven trends in the development of passenger car NOA

In recent years, the development path of autonomous driving technology has gradually become clear, and the industry is accelerating from L2 to L2.5/L2.9 and even L3. In this process, promoting popularization of Highway NOA and rapid development of Urban NOA has become a consensus of entire industry. Since 2023H2, the market competition for Urban NOA has become increasingly fierce. Major OEMs have accelerated the implementation of Urban NOA technology and gradually disclosed their development plans. Since 2023Q3, the development of passenger car NOA has entered the second half stage. Many automakers have actively deployed and used end-to-end foundation models and map-free solutions to promote the development of national intelligent driving into a new stage.

Currently, passenger car NOA faces the following evolution trends:

Trend 1: Highway NOA and Urban NOA penetration rates continue to increase

Since Tesla first introduced Highway NOA to China in 2019, it has been rapidly implemented in 2022 and has now covered many domestic independent and joint venture brands. By the end of 2023, sales volume of domestic ADAS passenger cars with L2.5 and above reached 1.484 million, with a penetration rate of 7.1%, of which sales increased by 78.3% year-on-year.

By the end of 2024H1, sales volume of domestic new passenger cars with L2.5 and above ADAS models was 1.06 million, with a penetration rate of 11%; among them, sales volume of Highway NOA models was 328,000, with a penetration rate of 3.4% (excluding models with both Highway NOA and Urban NOA functions). Sales volume of Urban NOA models was 732,000, with a penetration rate of 7.6%.

Trend 2: Urban NOA entering an arms race in 2023~2024

Led by OEMs such as Tesla, NIO/Xpeng Motors/Li Auto, and Huawei System, major domestic OEMs and solution providers have all moved towards Urban NOA, some of which have begun to installed in vehicles in 2023. From 2023 to 2024, Urban NOA enters an arms race, and many OEMs have successfully mass-produced L2.9.

Trend 3: Since 2023, joint venture OEMs have accelerated their follow-up of Highway NOA

From the perspective of OEM type, in 2022, Highway NOA enterprises concentrated in local market, and no foreign capital has entered. Since 2023, joint venture OEMs have begun to accelerate their follow-up of Highway NOA. As of 2024H1, sales of joint venture OEM Highway NOA models in China reached 54,000 units, with a penetration rate of 0.6%. From 2022 to 2024H1, the sales and penetration rate of independent OEM Highway NOA models continued to rise. By the end of 2023, its sales had reached 454,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 124.5%; the penetration rate reached 2.2%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. In 2024H1, its sales reached 275,000 units, with a penetration rate of 2.8%.

In 2023, sales volume of joint venture brand Urban NOA was 604,000 units, with a penetration rate of 5.9%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year; sales volume of independent brand models was 423,000 units, with a penetration rate of 3.9%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year. From 2023 to 2024H1, the penetration rate of independent brand Urban NOA models further accelerated. As of 2024H1, the sales penetration rate of independent brand Urban NOA increased from 3.9% at the end of 2023 to 8.3%. This trend shows the rapid layout of many independent brands in intelligent driving field and the increasing acceptance of domestic consumers for L2.9 ADAS products.

Trend 4: L2.9 and L2.5 are accelerating their penetration into the mid- and low-end markets, and the era of technological equality is quietly approaching.

From the perspective of price, Urban NOA functions have grown most significantly in models priced at 200,000-300,000 yuan. In 2024H1, especially in the "200,000-250,000 yuan" market segment, Urban NOA's installation volume grew fastest, and the era of technological equality has quietly arrived. This trend shows that in 2024, ADAS technology is accelerating its penetration into mid- and low-end markets, gradually becoming popular, and becoming a standard configuration for future daily family cars.

In the field of Highway NOA, L2.5 has been extended to models in two price ranges of "100,000-150,000 yuan" and "150,000-200,000 yuan". According to ResearchInChina data, penetration rate of domestic passenger car Highway NOA models priced at "100,000-150,000 yuan" and "150,000-200,000 yuan" increased from 0.02% and 0.29% at the end of 2023 to 0.08% and 1.39% in 2024H1, respectively. Taking the iCAR03 Family, a new energy electric brand under Chery Group, as an example, on June 12, 2024, iCAR 03 launched two new intelligent driving versions with an official price of 149,800 yuan and 159,800 yuan. iCAR 03 Intelligent Driving belongs to the L2.5 and has Highway NOA functions.

Trend 5: The first year of map-free Urban NOA has arrived, and many OEMs have launched national intelligent driving solutions without HD maps

At present, the debate around "map-free" technology route has also risen to an unprecedented height, and getting rid of HD maps has begun to become a key R&D direction of more and more Chinese companies. Among many domestic OEMs, OEMs that have adopted map-free NOA solutions include but are not limited to: Li Auto, Xpeng Motors, Huawei System, GAC, Great Wall Motor, Zeekr, etc., and Xiaomi adopts the low-weight map solution. Taking Huawei as an example, the NCA (Navigation Cruise Assist) system launched by Huawei in December last year does not require HD maps and covers all types of public roads across China. Based on ADS2.0 platform, the system integrates BEV and GOD networks to improve road analysis capabilities. In 2024, Huawei released Qiankun ADS3.0 system, which makes driving behavior more humanized through bionic neural networks and AI algorithms. In May 2024, Xpeng Motors announced that XNGP has achieved 100% map-free, and in cities and counties, core sections will be opened first to ensure the continuity of user experience. Even in areas without HD maps, through the combination of "navigation map + XNet perception capability + driving strategy", XNGP's functional performance is close to that in areas with HD maps.

Trend 6: End-to-end foundation models are being adopted in vehicles to help upgrade intelligent driving

In 2024, emerging OEMs announced that their self-developed foundation model would be applied to vehicles. Introduction of foundation model made the system more accurate and efficient in dealing with complex environments and dynamic changes. Through deep learning and real-time data processing, the foundation model can analyze road conditions in real time, make intelligent decisions, and provide drivers with a safer and more reliable driving experience. With the promotion of this solution, autonomous driving systems can be more widely used nationwide, improving driving flexibility and adaptability.

Li Auto believes that it is not possible to achieve autonomous driving above L4 by relying solely on One Model end-to-end. It proposed a new solution: "System 1 + System 2", namely, E2E (end-to-end foundation model) + VLM (visual language model). Currently, System 1 is in the "second generation: map-free, segmented end-to-end", which consists of two models, namely perception and planning. The biggest change is the removal of NPN, which does not rely on prior information. This generation of technology allows Li Auto to truly be able to drive across the country and can be driven with navigation only.

Trend 7: Vision-only perception route is regarded as one of new directions of technological development by more Chinese OEMs

In the evolution of Chinese intelligent driving technology, core technology architecture of the first half is highly dependent on LiDAR and HD map. This mode ensures the stability and safety of autonomous driving functions through complex sensor fusion technology and support of geographic information systems, especially in real-time updating and precise matching of HD maps.

As the second half of intelligent driving competition begins, the technical routes are showing a diversified development trend, which can be mainly divided into two categories:

The first technical route, represented by Huawei, adopts the strategy of "LiDAR multi-fusion perception + map-free solution/lightweight map solution + end-to-end foundation model". Under this framework, LiDAR provides high-precision perception data, combined with map-free or lightweight map solutions, reducing the system's dependence on HD maps. Meanwhile, the application of end-to-end foundation model further enhances system's autonomous learning and decision capabilities, making the autonomous driving system more flexible and reliable in complex environments.

The second technical route, represented by Tesla, Xpeng Motors, Jiyue, etc., mainly adopts the technical combination of "vision-only + map-free solution / HD map + end-to-end foundation model". In August 2024 , Xpeng Motors officially launched the AI Eagle Eye Vision Solution, which is a high-level intelligent driving solution with light radar (LiDAR has changed from mandatory to optional in L3). The first model equipped with AI Eagle Eye Vision Solution is the P7+, which will be officially launched in Q4.

Table of Contents

1 Sales and Solutions of NOA-enabled Passenger Car Models in China

2 Passenger Car NOA Market Trends and Discussions

3 Passenger Car NOA Solutions and Application of OEMs

4 Domestic Suppliers Passenger Car NOA Program

5 Foreign Suppliers' Passenger Car NOA Program

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