In 2024, online grocery sales accounted for 11% of total grocery spending in the US, nearly four times the share of spending just five years earlier. Growth will be driven by consumer interest in convenience in terms of not only shopping time and delivery options, but also with meal planning and preparations.
The Future of Grocery: Online Grocery, Meal Kits, & Direct-to-Consumer Food examines the dynamics of the current landscape of the online food and beverage market. Consumer demographics, perceptions, motivations, and behavior are examined as pertaining to dietary choices and use of food delivery and pickup services. Attitudes on food, diet, health, and product packaging are studied. Effects of recent historical trends on consumers - including the COVID-19 pandemic and the inflation era - are considered in both a broad sense and in the context of the online grocery market.
The reasons for and implications of shifts in consumer perception and behavior are analyzed in the context of present and future market opportunities.
Market size data are provided at the retail sales level for 2019-2024, and projections are provided for 2025-2029 and 2034.
This report provides information about online retail sales of food and beverages to consumers in the following product categories:shelf-stable foods and beverages in cans, bottles, or other packaging (including alcoholic beverages)meal kits and prepared mealsperishables such as fresh fruits and vegetablesdairy and egg productsmeat, poultry, and seafoodbakery itemsfrozen foods
This report includes online sales of such items from:
store-based grocers (e.g., Kroger, Safeway, ALDI)
mass merchandisers (e.g., Walmart, Target) and warehouse clubs (e.g., Costco, Sam's Club, BJ's)
third-party pack-and-deliver companies that use their own workforce to purchase groceries at various stores and deliver them to customers (e.g., Instacart)
local co-ops and farmers' markets that arrange for subscriptions, single orders, and pickup or delivery digitallyOnline sales made via website or app - whether delivered to a customer via shipment or local delivery, picked up in-store, or received via curbside pickup - are all included.
Table of Content
CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Future of Grocery Delivery
Online Grocery Shopping Driven by Convenience
Opportunities for Growth
SCOPE
METHODOLOGY
CHAPTER 2: RECENT HISTORICAL TRENDS
HIGHLIGHTS
THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC WAS THE JUMPSTART THE ONLINE GROCERY MARKET NEEDED
RISING PRICES: FROM SUPPLY CHAIN CRUNCHES TO INFLATION
Table 2-1. Month-to-Month Changes in Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Food Items, 2022 - 2025 (percent change)
Table 2-2. Consumer Concerns about Rising Food Prices, 2021 - 2025 (percent of consumers)
Feelings of Personal Economic Wellbeing
Table 2-3. Feelings about Personal Economic Wellbeing Currently and In the Next Few Years, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Rising Prices Impact Consumer Behavior
Cutting Back on Household Expenses
Table 2-4. Consumers Cutting Back on Household Expenses in the Last 12 Months, 2022 (percent of consumers)
Table 2-5. Types of Household Expenses Cut Back on in the Last 12 Months, 2022 (percent of consumers)
Table 2-6. Consumer Spending on "Extras", 2023 - 2025 (percent of consumers)
Private Labels Are More Desirable as Prices Rise
Figure 2-1. Chocolate under a New Walmart Private Label Brand
Figure 2-2. In 2024, Sales of Private Label Items Are Mostly Increasing as Sales from National Brands Decline
Figure 2-3. Private Label CPG Dollar Share, Unit Sales Growth, and Store Foot Traffic Changes
The Vast Majority of Consumers Have Noticed the Rising Cost of Food, and Many Are Changing Their Purchasing Decisions
Figure 2-4. Noticing the Rising Cost of Food and Beverages over the Past Year, 2024
Figure 2-5. Impact of Rising Costs on Food/Beverage Purchasing, 2024
Consumers Find Price More Important for Food Purchase Decisions in 2024
Figure 2-6. Purchase Drivers for Food and Beverage Purchase Decisions, 2024
Figure 2-7. Purchase Drivers for Food and Beverage Purchase Decisions by Household Income Bracket, 2024
SNACKING AND HEALTHY EATING HABITS
Snacking Trends Are Important to Online Grocery Shopping
Changes to Snacking Habits in 2023
Table 2-7. Current Snacking Activity Compared to Pre-Pandemic Levels, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Snacking Activity in 2025
Table 2-8. Statements on Snacking Activity, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 2-9. Frequency of Snacking Habits, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Increasing Use of Semaglutide Medications Can Change Snacking and Eating Habits
Table 2-10. Use of and Interest in GLP-1 and Other Weight Loss Drugs, 2025 (percent of consumers)
WORK HABITS
Food Trends in the Context of Changes to Work
Working from Home in 2023
Work from Home Ability and Frequency
Table 2-11. Ability to Work from Home and Frequency of Remote Work, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Working at a Co-Working Space or Working from Home
Table 2-12. Working at a Co-Working Space or Working from Home, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Table 2-13. Consumer Rating of Experiences Working at a Co-Working Space or Working from Home, 2023 (percent of consumers who have ever had each experience)
Table 2-14. Consumer Opinions on Working at a Co-Working Space or Working from Home, 2023 (percent of employed consumers)
Work Habits in 2024
Typical Work Weeks
Table 2-15. Where Time Is Spent during a Typical Work Week, 2024 (percent of employed consumers)
Typical Work Arrangements
Figure 2-8. Typical Work Arrangements (Fully Remote, Hybrid, and Traditional), 2024 (percent of employed consumers)
Work Habits in 2025
Table 2-16. Ability to Work from Home, 2025 (percent of employed consumers)
Table 2-17. Where Time Is Spent during a Typical Work Week, 2025 (percent of employed consumers)
Figure 2-9. Typical Work Arrangements (Fully Remote, Hybrid, and Traditional), 2025 (percent of employed consumers)
Table 2-18. Statements about Remote Work and Looking for a New Job, 2025 (percent of employed consumers)
Table 2-19. Satisfaction with Elements of Work Life, 2025 (percent of employed consumers)
Table 2-20. Satisfaction with Elements of Work Life by Type of Work, 2025 (percent of employed consumers who are satisfied with each element)
Table 2-21. Challenges Faced at Work by Type of Work, 2025 (percent of employed consumers)
Table 2-22. Typical Work Schedules by Type of Work, 2025 (percent of employed consumers)
Table 2-23. Working Additional Hours Outside of the Typical Schedule by Type of Work, 2025 (percent of employed consumers)
Table 2-24. How Often Workers Think They Need to Meet in Person with their Team by Type of Work, 2025 (percent of employed consumers)
PERSONAL FEELINGS OF WELLBEING
Reporting Negative Mental States in 2023
Figure 2-10. Current Feelings on Mental and Physical Symptoms Compared to "Normal" or Preferred Level, 2023 (percent of consumers)
Continuing Mental and Physical Health Effects in 2024
Table 2-25. Current Feelings on Mental and Physical Symptoms Compared to "Normal" or Preferred Level, 2024 (percent of consumers)
Elevated Negative Symptoms Continuing in 2025
Table 2-26. Current Feelings on Mental and Physical Symptoms Compared to "Normal" or Preferred Level, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Stress Levels and Impact on Food/Beverage Consumption
Figure 2-11. Stress Levels in the Last Six Months and Impact on Healthfulness of Food/Beverage Consumption, 2024
Figure 2-12. Sources of Stress for Consumers Who Were Very or Somewhat Stressed in the Last Six Months, 2024
Figure 2-13. Top Sources of Stress in the Last Six Months by Generation, 2024
Figure 2-14. Happiness, Stress, and Health Status by Household Income Bracket, 2024
Figure 2-15. Impact of Food Consumption on Mental or Emotional Well-Being, 2024
CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW AND MARKET TRENDS
HIGHLIGHTS
CONVENIENCE THE ULTIMATE SELLING POINT FOR BUSY CONSUMERS
US ONLINE GROCERY SHOPPING WELL BEHIND OTHER COUNTRIES, BUT THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES FOR EXPANSION AND CONTINUED HOUSEHOLD ADOPTION
CLEAN LABEL TRENDS AND INCREASING FOCUS ON HEALTHY FOODS
There Is No Single Universal Definition of "Clean Label"
Popular Media Effects on Food Perceptions: Healthfulness, Safety, Environmental Sustainability, and Human and Animal Welfare Are Scrutinized
Different Levels of Processing
1: Unprocessed and Minimally Processed Foods
2: Processed Culinary Ingredients
3: Processed Foods
4: Ultra-Processed Foods (UPFs)
Some Grocery Products Are Shedding the Image of Being Highly Processed
Figure 3-1. bettergoods Pizza Made Without Artificial Colors or Flavors
DIRECT SELLERS AND HOME DELIVERY COMPANIES
DTC Companies Tackling Niche Health Food Markets with Meal Kits, Prepared Meals, and Online Grocery
Table 3-1. Selected Meal, Meal Kit, and Grocery Delivery Services by Date Founded, Services Offered, and Geographic Area Served
iv
New Companies and Products with Niche Appeal May Choose DTC Channels
Figure 3-2. Functional Beverage Brand Mostly Selling Products via E-Commerce
Figure 3-3. Niche Plant-Based Meat Brand Ships Directly to Consumers
Subscriptions Save Consumers Money and Boost Sales
Subscribe and Save and Recurring Orders
Figure 3-4. Signing Up for Subscription Delivery Saves Users Money
Figure 3-5. Weekly Grocery Orders Restock Items and Recommend Grocery Lists According to User Preferences
Subscription Boxes as a Gift for Yourself or Others
Figure 3-6. Subscription Box Ships Monthly as the "Ultimate Gift"
Figure 3-7. Artisan Meats Shipped Via a Subscription for a Unique Flavor Experience
Figure 3-8. Save on Curated Food Selections with a Subscription Delivery
Private Labels
Figure 3-9. Private Label Premium Products Exclusive to DTC Retailer
Table 4-3. US Meal Kit Delivery Service Sales, 2019-2024 (million dollars)
Table 4-4. US Meal Kit Delivery Service Sales, 2024, 2025P-2029P, 2034P (million dollars)
CHAPTER 5: USE OF FOOD ORDERING METHODS AND ONLINE FOOD PURCHASES
HIGHLIGHTS
USE OF FOOD CARRYOUT AND DELIVERY METHODS IN 2024 AND
Use in the Last 12 Months
Table 5-1. Consumer Use of Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2024 and 2025 (percent of consumers)
Frequency of Use in the Last 3 Months
Figure 5-1. Consumer Frequency of Food Ordering Methods in the Last 3 Months, 2024 and 2025 (percent of consumers who have used each method in the last 12 months)
Frequency of Use Now Compared to 12 Months Ago
Table 5-2. Consumer Frequency of Food Ordering Habits Now Compared to 12 Months Ago, 2024 and 2025 (percent of consumers who have used each method in the last 12 months)
Expected Changes to Use in the Next 12 Months
Table 5-3. Consumer Expected Changes to the Frequency of Food Ordering Habits in the Next 12 Months, 2024 and 2025 (percent of consumers)
Strong Overlap Between Use of Services
Table 5-4. Strong Overlap in Use of Food Delivery and Pickup Options in the Last 12 Months, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Home Chef Services Compete with the Meal Kit and Meal Delivery Concept
Figure 7-3. Chefs for Seniors Provides a Personal Chef Service to Cook Fresh Meals in a Customer's Own Kitchen
Restaurant Delivery from Third Parties
CHAPTER 8: CONSUMER DEMOGRAPHICS
HIGHLIGHTS
TRENDS BY GENDER
Table 8-1. Use of Online Grocery and Meal Kit Delivery Services by Gender, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-2. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months by Gender, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-3. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods More Often Compared to 12 Months Ago by Gender, 2025 (percent of consumers using each service)
TRENDS BY AGE
Table 8-4. Use of Online Grocery and Meal Kit Delivery Services by Age Bracket, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-5. Use of Online Grocery and Meal Kit Delivery Services by Generation, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-6. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months by Age Bracket, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-7. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods More Often Compared to 12 Months Ago by Age Bracket, 2025 (percent of consumers using each service)
PATTERNS BASED ON HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Table 8-8. Use of Online Grocery and Meal Kit Delivery Services by Household Income Bracket, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-9. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months by Household Income Bracket, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-10. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods More Often Compared to 12 Months Ago by Household Income Bracket, 2025 (percent of consumers using each service)
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES
Table 8-11. Use of Online Grocery and Meal Kit Delivery Services by US Region, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-12. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months by US Region, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-13. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods More Often Compared to 12 Months Ago by US Region, 2025 (percent of consumers using each service)
URBAN, SUBURBAN, AND RURAL CONSUMERS
Table 8-14. Use of Online Grocery and Meal Kit Delivery Services by Population Density of Residence Area, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-15. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months by Rural, Suburban, and Urban Living Environment, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-16. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods More Often Compared to 12 Months Ago by Rural, Suburban, and Urban Environment, 2025 (percent of consumers using each service)
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Table 8-17. Use of Online Grocery and Meal Kit Delivery Services by Educational Attainment, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-18. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months by Educational Attainment, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-19. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods More Often Compared to 12 Months Ago by Educational Attainment, 2025 (percent of consumers using each service)
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Table 8-20. Use of Online Grocery and Meal Kit Delivery Services by Employment Status, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-21. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months by Employment Status, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-22. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods More Often Compared to 12 Months Ago by Employment Status, 2025 (percent of consumers using each service)
PRESENCE OF CHILDREN IN THE HOUSEHOLD AND MARITAL/PARTNERSHIP STATUS
Table 8-23. Use of Online Grocery and Meal Kit Delivery Services by Presence of Children in the HH and Marital/Partnership Status, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-24. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months by Presence of Children in the HH and Marital/Partnership Status, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-25. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods More Often Compared to 12 Months Ago by Presence of Children in the HH and Marital/Partnership Status, 2025 (percent of consumers using each service)
RACE/ETHNICITY
Table 8-26. Use of Online Grocery and Meal Kit Delivery Services by Race/Ethnicity, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-27. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months by Race/Ethnicity, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-28. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods More Often Compared to 12 Months Ago by Race/Ethnicity, 2025 (percent of consumers using each service)
PLANT-FORWARD CONSUMERS
Table 8-29. Use of Online Grocery and Meal Kit Delivery Services by Primary Diet/Eating Philosophy, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-30. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months by Primary Diet/Eating Philosophy, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-31. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods More Often Compared to 12 Months Ago by Primary Diet/Eating Philosophy, 2025 (percent of consumers using each service)
CHAPTER 9: CONSUMER PSYCHOGRAPHICS
HIGHLIGHTS
STRONG OVERLAP WITH CLEAN LABEL IDEALS
Table 9-1. Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months by Clean Label Preferences, 2025 (percent of consumers)
FOOD ATTITUDES
Table 9-2. Consumer Food Attitudes and Behaviors, 2025 (percent of consumers who agree completely)
ATTITUDES ON FOOD CONVENIENCE AND BEING BUSY
Table 9-3. Consumer Attitudes on Food Convenience and Being Busy/Stressed, 2025 (percent of consumers who agree completely)
GROCERY SHOPPING AND MEAL PLANNING BEHAVIOR
Table 9-4. Shopping for Groceries from a List by Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 9-5. Adding Items to Grocery Cart (In-Store or Online) on Impulse by Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 9-6. Planning Meals in Advance by Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 9-7. Planning Meals and Shopping around Ingredients Already in the Home by Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2025 (percent of consumers)
WILLINGNESS TO PAY MORE FOR CONVENIENT FOOD DELIVERY OR PREMIUM FOODS
Table 9-8. Willingness to Pay More for Grocery Delivery by Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 9-9. Willingness to Pay More for Meal Kit Delivery by Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 9-10. Willingness to Pay More for Grocery Pickup by Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 9-11. Willingness to Pay More for Prepared Meal Delivery by Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 9-12. Willingness to Pay More for Organic Foods/Beverages by Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 9-13. Willingness to Pay More for Clean Label Foods/Beverages by Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 9-14. Willingness to Pay More for Plant-Based Foods/Beverages by Use of Convenient Food Ordering Methods in the Last 12 Months, 2025 (percent of consumers)
SPECIAL DIETS/EATING RESTRICTIONS/FOOD PREFERENCES
Table 9-15. Frequency of Currently Following Special Diets/Eating Restrictions/Food Preferences, 2025 (percent of consumers)
REASONS FOR CONSUMERS ORDERING GROCERIES OR MEAL KITS ONLINE
Table 9-16. "Why do you order food and beverage groceries online for pickup or shipment/delivery to your home?" 2025 (percent of consumers who use grocery delivery or pickup services)
Table 9-17. "Why do you have fresh ingredient meal kits delivered?", 2025 (percent of consumers who use meal kit delivery services)
WHY DO SO MANY ONLINE SHOPPERS NOT SHOP FOR GROCERIES OR MEAL KITS ONLINE?
Table 9-18. "Why do you not order food or beverage groceries online for pickup?", 2025 (percent of consumers who do not use grocery pickup services)
Table 9-19. "Why do you not order food and beverage groceries online for delivery/shipment?", 2025 (percent of consumers who do not use grocery delivery services)
Table 9-20. "Why do you not order meal kits online for delivery?", 2025 (percent of consumers who do not use meal kit delivery services)
CHAPTER 10: PACKAGING AND SUSTAINABILITY TRENDS
HIGHLIGHTS
THE BALANCE BETWEEN EFFECTIVE, SUSTAINABLE, AND LOW-COST PACKAGING
Figure 10-1. Use of Recyclable or Compostable Packaging for Meal Kits for Increased Sustainability
TARGETING EXCESSIVE PACKAGING FOR REDUCTION AND ELIMINATION
PROTECTIVE PACKAGING IS IMPORTANT FOR PRODUCT INTEGRITY
Figure 10-2. Void Fill Used As an Attractive and Elegant Enhancement to a Food Gift
A SHIFT FROM EXPENSIVE SET-UP BOXES TO OTHER PAPER PACKAGING
Figure 10-3. Types of Paper Packaging with High Quality Graphics
REUSABLE PACKAGING
Figure 10-4. Reusable Grocery Boxes Keep Foods Chilled and Safe during Transit
Figure 10-5. Reusable Food Packaging and "Waste-Free Delivery"
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BIODEGRADABLE AND COMPOSTABLE PACKAGING
Figure 10-6. Compostable Wrappers Used for Chocolate Sold Online
CONSUMER INSIGHTS ON RECYCLING, HOUSEHOLD WASTE, AND PACKAGING
What Consumers Think about Sustainability and Sustainable Lifestyles
Table 10-1. Consumer Opinions on Sustainability, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Table 10-2. Importance of Practices in Living a Sustainable Lifestyle, 2025 (percent of consumers)
Recycling and Composting Services
Table 10-3. Consumer Access to Recycling and Composting Services, 2024 (percent of consumers)
Table 10-4. Consumer Usage Frequency of Recycling and Composting Services, 2024 (percent of consumers who report using each service)
Thoughts on Packaging and Waste
Table 10-5. Consumer Agreement on Statements about Recycling and Packaging Materials, 2024 (percent of consumers)
Table 10-6. Packaging Types Considered Most Eco-Friendly, 2024 (percent of consumers)
Table 10-7. Importance of Sustainable and Eco-Friendly Packaging Characteristics, 2024 (percent of consumers)
Consumers Think that Environmental Responsibility Is Personal
Table 10-8. Consumer Environmental Attitudes and Behaviors, 2025 (percent of consumers who completely agree)