세계 LNG 시장 규모는 2023년 1,462억 달러에서 2031년 2,166억 6,000만 달러에 이를 것으로 예측되며, 2024-2031년 예측 기간에 CAGR로 5.04%의 성장이 예상됩니다. 에너지 안보와 프로젝트를 강화하기 위해 세계 정부는 액화 천연가스(LNG) 공급에 주력하고 있습니다. LNG 공급의 경우 북미, 특히 미국은 세계 최대의 LNG 수출국으로 알려져 있습니다. 이 나라는 국내외의 LNG 수요 증가에 대응하는 것 외에도 국내 에너지 가격과 환경문제를 다루려고 합니다. 발전에서 석탄에서 벗어나고, 특히 러시아 우크라이나 침공 후 지정 학적 불안과 관련된 신뢰할 수있는 에너지 공급의 필요성은 LNG 수출 성장의 주요 촉진요인이되었습니다.
예를 들어, EIA는 2024년 5월 Golden Pass LNG, Corpus Christi Stage 3, Plaquemines LNG Phase I의 세 가지 주요 LNG 프로젝트의 시작으로 미국의 천연 가스 상업이 확대될 것이라고 발표했습니다. 가장 큰 수출국인 미국은 유럽과 아시아태평양을 중심으로 세계에서 LNG 수요를 높이고 있는 성장에 의해 강화되고 있습니다.
LNG 출하 증가로 시장 성장을 크게 촉진
LNG 수송은 세계 에너지 시스템에 필수적입니다. LNG 수송은 파이프라인 인프라가 없는 시장에서도 천연가스를 이용할 수 있도록 안전하고 효과적인 장거리 수송을 유지하고 있습니다. 다른 화석 연료에 비해 LNG 수송은 에너지원의 다양화를 돕고, 에너지 안보를 향상시키고, 보다 깨끗한 에너지 소비를 촉진합니다. 전쟁이 발발하는 가운데 아시아태평양에서는 러시아의 LNG 수출이 급증하고 있습니다. 세계 에너지 수요 증가에 대응하기 위해 LNG 수출은 더욱 증가할 것으로 예측됩니다.
예를 들어, 러시아의 Yamal LNG 플랜트의 LNG와 가스 콘덴세이트 화물 100개 근처가 2024년 6월 유럽 연합(EU)에 도착했습니다. 대부분은 벨기에, 프랑스, 스페인을 위한 것이었습니다. 이 양은 전년에 유럽으로 보내진 러시아산 LNG 180억 배럴 중 160억 배럴 이상에 해당합니다.
LNG 액화 플랜트 설립이 세계 LNG 시장을 가속화
세계 에너지 공급과 탈탄소화 구상에서 LNG의 역할은 점점 커지고 있습니다. LNG 액화 플랜트는 천연 가스를 소형 액체 상태로 전환하고 파이프라인이 없는 시장으로의 장거리 선박 운송을 가능하게 하는 데 필수적입니다. 천연가스의 양을 약 600분의 1로 줄임으로써 이 기술은 저장과 운송의 경제성과 효율성을 향상시킵니다. 다른 화석연료와 비교하면 LNG는 CO2, NOx, SO2, 미립자 물질의 발생이 적고 가장 깨끗한 화석연료입니다. 천연가스의 가용성을 높이고, GHG 배출을 줄이고, 저탄소 에너지로의 전환을 지원하기 위해서는 더 많은 LNG 액화 플랜트를 세계에 건설해야 합니다.
예를 들어, Scandinavian Biogas는 2024년 7월 스웨덴의 몬스테라스에 7,500만 달러의 바이오 LNG 시설을 건설할 의향을 발표했습니다. 이 시설에서는 300,000 톤의 지역의 분뇨와 녹비가 매년 약 120GWh의 바이오 LNG로 전환됩니다. 또한, 핀란드의 Wartsila Corporation은 2척의 신형 LNG선에 엔진과 연료 가스 시스템을 공급하는 계약을 획득하여 이 지역의 친환경 에너지 솔루션에 대한 노력을 입증하고 있습니다.
LNG 생산 능력 급증으로 시장 성장을 가속화
2024-2028년에 추정 1억 9,300만 톤(MMT)의 신규 생산 능력 증강이 전망되고 있어 시장은 크게 성장할 전망입니다. 이 확장은 가격을 안정시키고 세계 에너지 안보를 강화하는 것을 목표로 합니다. 게다가 이 예외적인 증가는 시장 공급 과잉을 초래하여 비용을 극적으로 저하시킬 것으로 예측되며, 2030년까지 약 6.9달러/MMBtu까지 하락할 것으로 예측되고 있습니다.
이 보고서는 세계 LNG 시장에 대한 조사 분석을 통해 시장 규모와 예측, 시장 역학, 주요 기업 현황과 전망 등의 정보를 제공합니다.
Global LNG market is projected to witness a CAGR of 5.04% during the forecast period 2024-2031, growing from USD 146.20 billion in 2023 to USD 216.66 billion in 2031. To strengthen energy security and projects, geopolitical governments across the world are concentrating on the supply of liquid natural gas (LNG). In the case of LNG supply, North America, especially the United States, is signified as the largest LNG exporter in the world. The country seeks to address domestic energy pricing and environmental issues in addition to meeting the growing demand for LNG abroad. The move away from coal in power generation and the need for dependable energy supplies in the wake of geopolitical unrest, especially after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are the main drivers of the development of LNG exports.
For instance, in May 2024, EIA announced that the United States natural gas commerce is expected to increase with the opening of three major LNG projects, Golden Pass LNG, Corpus Christi Stage 3, and Plaquemines LNG Phase I. The projects are anticipated to start operations by late 2024 and increase output by 2025, boosting the LNG exports, which are anticipated to escalate by 6% in 2024 and 20% in 2025. The United States, as the largest exporter, is strengthened by the growth that is raising the demand for LNG around the world, especially in Europe and Asia-Pacific.
The Rise in LNG Shipments is Propelling Market Growth Extensively
LNG shipments are essential to the world's energy system. They make natural gas available to markets without pipeline infrastructure by maintaining safety and effective long-distance delivery. Compared to other fossil fuels, LNG shipments aid in energy source diversification, improve energy security, and encourage cleaner energy consumption. Amidst the war, a steep rise in Russian LNG exports has been witnessed in the Asia-Pacific. LNG exports are anticipated to increase further to keep up with the global rise in energy demand.
For instance, nearly 100 LNG and gas condensate cargos from the Yamal LNG plant in Russia reached the European Union in June 2024. The shipments were mostly sent to Belgium, France, and Spain. The amounts made up more than 16 billion barrels out of the 18 billion barrels of Russian LNG that were sent to Europe in the previous year.
The Establishment of LNG Liquefaction Plants is Expediting the Global LNG Market
The role of LNG in the global energy supply and decarbonization initiatives is growing. LNG liquefaction plants are essential to convert natural gas to a compact liquid state and enable long-distance ship transportation to markets not served by pipelines. By reducing the amount of natural gas by almost 600 times, the technique improves the economy and efficiency of storage and transportation. When compared to other fossil fuels, LNG produces less CO2, NOx, SO2, and particulate matter, making LNG the cleanest fossil fuel. More LNG liquefaction plants must be built globally to boost the availability of natural gas, reduce GHG emissions, and aid in the shift to low-carbon energy.
For instance, in July 2024, Scandinavian Biogas announced intentions to construct a USD 75 million bio-LNG facility in Monsteras, Sweden, which will start in late 2024. The plant will transform 300,000 tons of local manure and green matter into around 120 GWh of bio-LNG each year, equivalent to 12 million liters of diesel, principally for heavy transport and shipping. Furthermore, Finland's Wartsila Corporation won contracts to supply engines and fuel gas systems for two new LNG-powered boats, demonstrating the region's commitment to environmentally friendly energy solutions.
A Steep Surge in LNG Capacity is Expediting the Market Growth
The market is poised for significant growth, with an estimated 193 million metric tons (MMT) of new capacity addition expected between 2024 and 2028. The expansion aims to stabilize prices and enhance energy security across the globe. Moreover, the exceptional rise is anticipated to lead to market oversupply, drastically dropping costs, with projections indicating a decrease to approximately USD 6.9/MMBtu units by 2030.
For instance, as per the 2024 World LNG Report by the International Gas Union, the LNG market has achieved a new but fragile equilibrium, owing to a shortage of spare capacity in the forecast period. LNG receiving capacity increase has shaped market development over the last 24 months, reaching an astonishing 1,029.9 MTPA by the end of February 2024 from around 70 MTPA from 2023, marking the biggest year of new additions since 2010.
Government Initiatives Acting as a Catalyst
Government measures are crucial in marketing LNG as a transportation fuel. The activities include changing rules to accommodate LNG in commercial transportation, constructing a network of LNG filling stations, and developing policies to encourage the use of LNG. Strategic investments in infrastructure and public-private partnerships are essential for overcoming early market hurdles and guaranteeing widespread LNG adoption.
For instance, in March 2024, the Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas inaugurated India's first small-scale liquefied natural gas (SSLNG) plant at GAIL's Vijaypur plant in Madhya Pradesh. The effort is a part of the government's policy to increase the use of natural gas in the energy mix. Moreover, the government announced the SSLNG unit to improve the liquefaction and transportation of natural gas, increase environmentally friendly energy, and reduce reliance on conventional hydrocarbons such as coal and oil.
Asia-Pacific to Lead the Global Market Share
Asia-Pacific, especially China, Japan, and India, dominates the global LNG market due to high demand growth, significant investments in regasification infrastructure, and a drive toward cleaner energy. China reclaimed its position as the leading LNG importer in 2023, while India and Japan intend to raise natural gas's part of the energy mix by 2030. Southeast Asian countries are developing as significant participants, with new regasification projects ongoing, cementing Asia-Pacific's status as the uncontested global LNG market leader.
For instance, in July 2024, the Japanese government announced that it is aggressively establishing Asian gas markets to boost LNG trade and energy security in the face of diminishing domestic demand. As Japan's LNG imports fall to a decade-low, owing to a recovery in nuclear energy and renewable sources, Japanese corporations are investing in the regional markets to sell excess LNG. Projects in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia aim to build a strong Asian gas market, assuring Japan's continued prominence in the global LNG market while addressing energy flexibility as well as supply issues.
Future Market Scenario (2024 - 2031F)
A large number of new LNG projects that are under construction will cause a fundamental shift in the market from 2026, which is likely to change the overall market scenario.
Emerging economies are anticipated to augment LNG demand as they are likely to benefit from lower LNG prices compared to traditional fuels, which in turn is expected to cater to ample opportunities for market growth in the upcoming future.
IEEFA predicts that around 17 MTPA of liquefaction projects will come online around the world in 2025, more than in 2023 and 2024 combined. New capacity increases will peak in 2026, with an anticipated 64 MTPA of capacity coming online in a single year, and continue through 2027, when 37 MTPA of new capacity is expected to go online.
Key Players Landscape and Outlook
The market players are continuously striving for the growth of the LNG sector as it is a highly competitive market. Moreover, there is an intense desire for market players to gain a competitive edge in the industry. Furthermore, they are investing a hefty amount in setting up LNG plants via different collaborative techniques.
In August 2024, QatarEnergy announced that it is in negotiations with Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) over a new 15-year LNG supply deal that will increase Qatar furnish Kuwait with 3 MTPA of LNG via its North Field project, beginning in 2026. The agreement intends to fulfill Kuwait's rising power in generating demands as the government increasingly relies on imported gas to meet its energy requirements.
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Companies mentioned above DO NOT hold any order as per market share and can be changed as per information available during research work.