한글목차

10년 후 전체 지속 가능한 항공 연료(SAF) 생산량은 6,000mmgy를 넘어설 것으로 예상되며, 2018년부터 2030년까지 연평균 복합 성장률(CAGR) 49.8%로 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.

산업계의 탈탄소화 요구에 부응하여 SAF 의무화를 발표하는 국가가 증가하고 있습니다. 가장 야심찬 목표를 발표한 나라는 영국과 일본으로, 두 나라 모두 2030년까지 SAF 혼합 비율 10%를 목표로 하고 있습니다. 그러나 SAF공급과 수요 측면에서 미국은 주요 시장으로 부상하고 있습니다.

Neste, Gevo, World Energy와 같은 연료 생산 측 업계 기업들이 2030년까지 SAF 생산량을 주도할 것으로 예상됩니다. 한편, 많은 항공사들은 2050년까지 순 제로 목표를 채택하여 2030년까지 SAF 사용량을 10%까지 늘리는 것을 목표로 하고 있습니다.

항공 산업은 1인당 배출량 증가의 가장 큰 요인으로, 2050년에는 승객 수가 두 배로 증가하여 80억 명에 달할 것으로 예상됩니다. 국제항공운송협회(IATA)도 2050년까지 순 제로화 목표를 발표했는데, IATA는 300개 이상의 회원사를 대표하며 항공 운송량의 83%를 차지하는 것으로 추정되며, IATA는 배출량 감소의 65%는 지속 가능한 항공 연료(SAF)의 채택을 통해 달성될 것으로 예상했습니다. 달성될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

SAF 생산이 확대됨에 따라 원료 수요가 공급을 초과할 수 있으며, 특히 폐유는 생산량이 적어 재생 가능 디젤 생산자와의 경쟁이 발생할 수 있습니다.

2050년에는 회수된 이산화탄소를 이용한 액체연료화 기술이 성숙하여 CO2가 가장 큰 원료가 될 것으로 예상됩니다.

이 보고서는 전 세계 지속 가능한 항공 연료 시장을 조사했으며, 민간 항공 부문의 탈탄소화 과제와 배출량 감축을 달성하는 데 있어 SAF의 잠재적 역할에 대해 설명합니다. 또한, 해당 부문의 과제, 주요 기술 변화 및 주요 참여업체를 분석합니다.

목차

주요 요약

• 기후 변화에 대한 항공의 기여
• SAF 브리핑
• SAF 시장 과제
• ASTM 승인 SAF 생산 경로
• SAF 생산은 기술 전환을 겪을 것
• 파워 투 리퀴드 기술은 장기적으로 SAF를 확장하는 데 도움이 될 것
• 정책 전망
• SAF 혼합 의무에 대한 개요
• 추가 이니셔티브 및 정책 개발
• 공급 및 수요 전망
• 현재 진행 중이거나 예정된 프로젝트를 기반으로 한 SAF 생산 전망
• 2030년 용량별 최대 SAF 프로젝트
• 지역별 SAF 공급 전망
• 주요 수요 시장
• SAF 산업 플레이어
• 현재 및 예상 SAF 시장 선도업체
• 항공업계의 SAF 도입 목표
• 신호
• 기업 서류에서 SAF에 대한 언급이 증가
• 석유 및 가스 부문의 SAF 거래 활동 스냅샷
• 문의

영문목차

Abstract

This report provides an overview of the global commercial aviation sector's decarbonization challenge and the potential role SAFs will play in achieving emission reduction. The report analyses sector challenges, important technological shifts, and key players.

To spur emission reductions from the sector, organizations such as the ICAO and the ITAO have set a target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have been identified as a key technology for achieving emission reductions.

There are currently 9 pathways for producing SAFs that are certified by the IATA. However, hydrotreatment remains the dominant pathway for the bulk of current SAF production. As SAF production scales, alternative pathways will become more prominent, particularly alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) and power to liquid (PtL) technologies.

Overall SAF production is expected to exceed 6,000mmgy by the end of the decade, increasing at a CAGR of 49.8% between 2018 and 2030.

In response to the industry's need to decarbonize, an increasing number of countries have announced SAF mandates. The most ambitious targets have been announced by the UK and Japan which are both aiming for a SAF blend of 10% by 2030. However, the US will be the key market both in terms of SAF supply and demand.

Industry players on the fuel production side such as Neste, Gevo, and World Energy will lead in terms of SAF production by 2030. Meanwhile, numerous airlines have adopted the net-zero by 2050 target and are aiming to increase their SAF usage to 10% by 2030.

Key Highlights

• Aviation represents the largest contributor to growth in per capita emissions and with passenger numbers expected to double, reaching 8 billion by 2050, the sector now needs to urgently address its environmental impact.
• The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has also announced its aim of reaching net-zero by 2050. The IATA represents over 300 members and constitutes an estimated 83% of air traffic. It has said that it expects 65% of emission reduction to be met through the adoption of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).
• Demand for feedstocks may outpace supply as SAF production scales, particularly for waste oils where volumes are low and competition with renewable diesel producers could take place.
• In 2050, CO2 will be the largest feedstock as power to liquid technologies that use captured carbon dioxide reach maturity.
• According to GlobalData's current database of active and upcoming projects, synthetic fuel production could reach up to 7,200 ktpa by 2030 as the number of projects reaches 68.
• The SAF Certificate Registry was launched at COP28, allowing companies to buy credible SAF certificates that represent conventional fuel being displaced.
• Despite neither the US or Canada having a blending mandate, North America will become the dominant market for SAF supply by 2030, where it will account for 10.8 Mt of annual SAF production. This equates to 39% of global supply.
• The key oil and gas players within the SAF market will experience a shake up. While China Petrochemical Corp currently stands joint first in terms of current capacity due to its Zhenai Renewable refinery, it will lose this market positioning in 2030 to new market entrants such as Oriental Energy.

Scope

• Carbon footprint of aviation sector
• Emission reduction potential of SAFs
• ASTM approved SAF production pathways
• Emerging SAF production pathways
• SAF production outlook and key supply and demand markets
• SAF production capacity by country
• Oil and gas sector activity within SAFs

Reasons to Buy

• Understand the key trends and challenges within the SAFs market
• Identify the key countries and players for SAF production capacity.
• Develop market insight of current, in development and announced capacity and latest trends of the sector.
• Understand how the oil and gas sector is engaging with this technology through upcoming capacity as well as alternative datasets such as deals, hiring and company filings trends.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Executive summary

• Aviation's contribution to climate change
• SAF briefing
• SAF market challenges
• ASTM approved SAF production pathways
• SAF production will undergo a technology shift
• Power to liquid technology will help scale SAFs in the long term
• Policy Outlook
• An overview of SAF blending mandates
• Additional initiatives and policy developments
• Supply and Demand Outlook
• SAF production outlook based on active and upcoming projects
• The largest SAF projects by capacity in 2030
• Regional SAF supply forecasts
• Key demand markets
• SAF Industry players
• Current and Projected market leaders in SAFs
• SAFs adoption targets for the airline industry
• Signals
• Mentions of SAFs within corporate filings is on the rise
• A snapshot of SAF deal activity from the oil and gas sector
• Contact Us